Discussion in 'Stocks' started by omegapoint, May 2, 2008.
A good sign
if your going to buy POT be sure to start buying some SMN when it nears new highs again, they also released some new commodity ETNs as well, be sure to hedge against that POT trade with SMN, DEE, DDP.
..."when it nears new highs"
Uhhh, how about on dips unless you're joking. Yuk.
does anyone not see that this company is a bubble begging to burst.
i do not see consistent rate of growth, a big correction will come and people will be in tears.....why buy now...its so expensive....ridiculously too.
It already corrected, and no one is in tears. People got out those who had to, new buyers are bidding it up massively.
POT's biggest problem (Mosaic, too) is the increased competition that is entering the fertilizer field.
With prices for nitrogenous fertilizer at such stratospheric levels, one can reasonably expect that trend to continue. The current players may enjoy phenomenal spot pricing (and even forward pricing) for a while, but don't expect that trend to continue indefinitely as others seek to enter such a lucrative field.
Another big downside risk is that these stocks are parabolic and priced for perfection when no one can really know what will happen with public policy on shifting sources of biomatter for ethanol (corn to sugar cane? sugar can to cellulosic?), and whether recent drought patterns in many parts of the world will hold up or not.
Also, input costs to make potash based fertilizers are rising dramatically.
And China and other, more centrally-planning aligned economies, will probably seek to seed domestic-based fertilizer producers to alleviate dependence on foreign sources of the 'stuff' needed to support something as vital as food production.
Crop rotation, weather patterns, massive U.S. subsidies for corn-based ethanol, other government subsidies for rice - these are all variables that can kneecap these high fliers in a heartbeat if they change suddenly.
Not every aspect of the outlook for POT and MOS is coming up roses.
i agree with the fly (ibankcoin.com) which is a free blog, I'm not associated.
POT going to under 100, just a matter of time.
POT will be in strong growth until some other massive sellers of potash come along. Until that happens, I still think it's a buy.
pot a bubble? yeah right, sorry to hear you guys either trying to short it or not making money on it.
Pot is definitely not a bubble. They just doubled their prices and demand is still strong. Future grow estimates are very strong and this company has been stellar.
A bubble was more like crocs the shoe company or so many other stupid products and websites and don't earn a dime and they are priced so high. With the commodity prices and populations growth and all the other troubles in the world, i don't think this stock is about to go down anytime soon, and there are reasons for it, the world needs to produce food since some of us apparently can't live without it!!!!!
Potash Expansion â MOS announced potash expansions that bring the total
planned capacity increases to 5.1 mln tonnes. Additions will begin coming
online in 2009 and upon completion in 2020, MOSaic will have a total capacity of
15.5 mln tonnes. The total cost of $3,150 mln equates to $618/tonne of annual
capacity. In terms of cost, these expansions compare favorably with greenfield
projects that cost ~$1,200/tonne of annual capacity.
Management reiterated that they would produce only in response to demand
pull. Over the 12 year duration of the planned expansion, projected capacity
will grow at a 3.4% CAGR. MOS will recover another 1.3 mln tonnes of annual
capacity when the Esterhazy tolling agreement expires.
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