POT - Potash

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by Port1385, Dec 28, 2008.

  1. Who is still into this position? I remember all of the elitetraders used to be pounding the desks trying to get us to buy (even on the way down) despite common sense and the obvious bubble pop in potash.

    For some reason I think this lovely may now be at a bottom and Im the only one with the brass balls to state such. Where are you desk pounders? Where did you go?
  2. NoDoji


    I've been watching POT for long term IRA investment, and have traded it intraday for months, so I'm quite familiar with this one.

    Technically, right now there's nothing to indicate POT has firmly established a bottom at $47.50 (basically its 2-year low), and POT has teased investors for months.

    First, on 8/19 when it bounced off the 200-day moving average to establish a higher low on buying volume for the first time since June's all time high.

    Then again on 9/16, when it established a higher low from 9/10's new low, rallied for several day's to test previous resistance of 184.50, failed to break out forming a double top, and crashed to a 52-week low below 77. (Best to wait for that test of resistance before jumping on board.)

    This was followed by several days of higher lows and higher highs, signaling a bottom for sure!

    Followed by another 7 days of freefall from 116.75 to 60, which hands down HAD to be the bottom, we've washed out all the weak hands and just look at that bounce all the way to 95! Well, almost to 95. (Remember, previous resistance is 116.75, and we're not even close when we stall just below 95, a very bad sign.)

    If someone were to tell you at this point in time (95) that POT needed to retest 60 before we could be sure a bottom has been established, you would very likely think they were insane, and buy in around the 76-80 range. Below 60! That's just not possible.

    On 11/20, we break 55 and here come the buyers for real now, and the bounce just below 57 to close at nearly 64 on 11/26 means the bottom is in for sure now, because Christmas is coming and we've established a higher low.

    But some of us want a retest of 55 as absurd as that sounds. On 12/5 we finally get an intraday double bottom around 47.50, and this price is too good to be true and it looks like the institutional buyers all woke up that afternoon, sparking a 9-day rally to 83.

    So now it appears that 47.50 is the absolute bottom and the current price of 69 is looking strong, especially since POT already warned a few days ago.

    IMHO, we need one of two things to happen here: A sustained break through previous resistance (83), followed by 83 becoming the new support; or a retest of 47.50.

    The problem is, the global economy is so fundamentally unsound right now, I'm willing to sit on cash in the IRAs for a while and see what happens next.
  3. ===============


    Has been [past tense]great uptrending sector;
    played it long & short

    For those who like to buy in bear market;
    maybe or may not be a good buying start,
    multiple positions.................................................

    Frankly i buy more fertilizer /seeds/real estate than ;
    overpriced, high ad ,,depreciating ,ultra-wide bid ask cars:D
  4. there was no good reason for these potash stocks to fall so much.
  5. telozo


    Or, there was no reason for it to go that high.
  6. Sure there was a good reason, but we only can speculate and will never know the true reasons. Even the experts dont truly know the reasons.

    Since we dont really know or understand the reasons (and the experts dont either), then all we can rely on is simple trend lines and retracements.

    Lets take Microsoft and Walmart. Since their climb and crash from the year 2000 neither have every truly recovered and seem to trade in a predictable range. Have both grown since? Sure. Walmart keeps opening stores, Microsoft keeps spreading their products like wildfire. Do both have great fundamentals? Sure. As the world grows, more stores will open and people will shop there. Even during the worst recessions, Walmart can keep growing.

    However, there are reasons as to why they dont keep going up and up and up and have traded in a range. Reasons that we dont know.

    Just trade the ES. Thats where the money really is...

  7. In my IRA I'm long POT, plus some other beaten down Ag companies (MOS, BG...). I also have some energy in there that has been beaten down.

    Basically I'm convinced that I'm long all the right stuff, just my mark to market position really sucks at the moment...
  8. Trend-rex
    Actually those are some of the few longs I am interested in;
    those & Nsany, HMC, TM/1933 start up LOL. But not buying any yet.

    But I dont like to get in early;
    like late a bit, even if one has to move like a turtle, in winter.......

    Another problem/opportunity I have had, is even a good car like a SaturnGM, i just dont want to pay $20,000+ for a new one.LOL:D Reguardless if GM goes bankrupt.

    One old timer told me Sunday, he thought new cars may come down 50%,in 2009, he went thru the great depression in 1930's as a kid.Told him ''yes & they may go down 50% then 80%,LOL''

  9. I think POT's headed which ever way the market is headed. I would trade the break out from the pennant.
  10. Noone should buy and hold until this crisis is over if it ever is. You just have to be nimble enough to get out when it goes against you because some of the tanks on these charts are just
    thru the basement. I remember when the ferts were blowing out earnings and the fundamental picture with the contracts for potash in China and India were tripled and the thing still tanked.
    I heard on the China news channel CCTV9 that the government was easing controls on ag commodities with the exception of
    potash, they didn't elaborate so that news was inconclusive.
    I tried digging for confirmation of what that might mean but again the macro is trumping the micro in the near term. Remember Google was going to 1000?
    #10     Dec 28, 2008