Almost zero chance....in my opinion. But I could be wrong. I cannot see any catalyst that put market corrected that much. Especially the Fed's agenda is as clear as water: Propping up this market.
Virus could do it, goes wild swamps the health care system, without treatment being available much higher death rate, panic and everyone house bound.
The virus will be likely in control in a week or two... And nobody will remember it anymore. You have to understand this coronavirus is less virulent compared to SARS and the dead ratio js only what 2-3% compared to 20% from SARS. Bottom line... I am not surprised if stocks are all time high again next week. Everything is back to usual. The coronavirus is overblown.
I think Spx would pullback to the 3000 range before ranging between 3400 to 3600 for the rest of the year. I think potential fiscal spending is getting overlooked especially when it comes to Infrastructure.
Could go either way after all 2 weeks before symptoms and transferable, so in 2 weeks there could be 10x's the cases and wild and too late, then it depends on infection rate, could swamp health services hit 10%+ death rate easy. Could in this early stage mutate again, low odds but it's possible.