Post your prediction for the Dow!

The Dow will most likely reach a level of ???? then consolidate and move toward a more reasonable level of ????. Once earnings pick up, I expect it to propel to ????. After considerable jerkiness, it may go down to ???? but I don't expect it to drop below ???? and certainly no lower than ????. I'm looking for the Dow to at least return ??% by 2004. But only if we don't crash through the level of ???? in 2002.

Kev

 

Optional is right about what will happen with the indexes. In 5 years they could have 100% turnover, which makes really long term predictions completely impossible. Still, I think the bubble started to form in 1996 and I wouldn't be suprised if valuations returned to the levels of that time, which were still lower than today. Without any rebalancing of the indexes, and without a genuine economic recovery, I think the dow could see 6000 in the next year.

 

Of course, Kevmeister will be the first to tell you "See, I told you so!"

Just kiddin' ya Kev.

 

Some things will be true into the next decade. Nobody consumes like Americans, it's planted in our brains from day one. The continual upgrading/revamping of the military will go on, probably more than we can imagine at the moment. Corps will be profitable. The Euro, designed with the hope of becoming the dominant world standard and unseating the dollar, will falter as they continue to absorb the influx of the eastern block and Asians into their soscialism. There will be a transfer of wealth to China, they want to make Shanghai the worlds econ/money center. It will be a long time before they are trusted. The worlds excess capital acts like hot money, all running to wherever the action appears to be, reminds me of six yr. olds playing baseball, they all run to wherever the ball is. We will be the dominant player for a long time because of our consumptive abilities and the stable govt.

Prices have more to do with how much money is available to chase them than fundies, just like real estate. There is huge excess capital floating around the world. As it moves around the volatility will be tremendous. I'm looking forward to party time.

 

Excellent point Banjo. What will be the next internet boom. Will there be real estate devaluation. Maybe hard assets like precious metals will become hot. But the money wants to go somewhere besides the mattress.

 

I just finished building a very elaborate & precise index predicting program. So it's still in the beta phase & I'm currently trying to work out some of the bugs.

Monday of last week I started my software crunching the numbers & by Saturday my software predicted the dow would close @ 8663.5 on Friday with an error of +- 0 pts.

So with current data my software predicts that on Sept 3rd of 2003 the dow will close @ 9110.7 with an error of +- 4552 pts. If I give it a little more time to crunch the numbers I would say by Sept 4th, 2003 I will have a more accurate reading.

But seriously as with most people here I would rather it be higher than lower, but it real doesn't matter to me.

 

You need to use some of that humor more in the trading room intrinsic..that is hilarious.

 

I think the Dow retraces all the way back to 1994 levels. Why ? Because that's what we do in post bubble periods. We give back all the gains to where the mayhem began. It all started with the rate cuts back in late '94 to overcome the asian crisis.

We aint seen nothing yet

 

NYSE Trader

i agree

i hope not - but its looked like that for some time and nothing to indicate that cycle is not prevelant

i suspect europe will drag the west down and the east will accelerate, but the east will provide their own supply chains ultimately undermining the west's present economic and social structure

so it maybe that the power base will alter, but that the game will continue

unfortunately it may also be that those who have had may be reluctant to lose to those who have not, and this will lead to a destructive input into the system which i hope i am not around to see

and by the way, i am looking on the bright side!

 

I have it figured the other way around. I think the US will drag down Europe. The Europeans have been thru much of this already and are beginning to base and "rebuild." The strength of the euro against the dollar is remarkable.

The commercial power of the EEC is formidable if organized; and I think the Europeans realize it. For example, instead of the UK bying oil, and France buying oil, and Germany buying oil, the EEC buys oil. Now they are in competition with us which drives up our price and drives their price down.