And EUR/NZD itself is 100% correlated to... EUR/NZD, did you notice? Also, are you suggesting that synthetic trades are without risks? PS: No need to add words like "fool", "joke", etc... it won't make your posts and arguments any more credible, on the contrary.
drownpruf & xelite777, why don't you stop the ego tripping and discuss things in a normal way? We are traders, we sure are able to admit when we are wrong right? So all I see is a big pile of misunderstandings here. I am effectively short EUR/NZD. I don't care for correlations between any EUR/xxx pair and NZD/xxx pair. Actually, since I am short EUR/USD and bearish on that pair, I look forward to go long USD/CHF, which is highly negatively correlated with EUR/USD to diversify a little bit (and have a fuckin central bank covering my ass haha) The aim of this thread, and forum, is to share knowledge, point of views, and to educate others respectfully. Please let's get back to that.
You still haven't answered the question and I will repeat it again : do you seriously believe that synthetic trades are without risks? No one-liner, stand-up (no funny at all) comedy's "answer"please.
That's precisely what I am doing, but it seems pretty obvious that the other guy refuses to cooperate and have a normal discussion without making insulting remarks in almost ANY ET thread.
I answered, no. I answered in the post following your question, here: http://elitetrader.com/vb/showpost.php?p=3977023&postcount=252 It has exactly the same risk at EURNZD natural... which is why you are so comical. You were discussing correlation between two pairs w/o reducing to the synthetic.
It looks like you are using a mix of technical analysis and fundamentals to make trading decisions, am I correct? Personally I cannot, it just complicates things beyond belief, because it just adds an unnecessary extra layer of variables. And the more variables you introduce to your system, the greater the likelihood that your estimate will be wrong Just my opinion though.
Are you serious?? You gave EUR to receive JPY. Then you gave these JPY to receive NZD. How difficult is it to understand than you at some point you will give away your NZD and receive back the EUR??? Please donât use words you canât understand.
Exactly. I only use very very basic fundamentals to show me the way and if technicals align with these fundamentals, then I enter the market. In case of CHF it is rather easy for me to see. SNB flodding the market with CHF to stabelize their currency (1.20 floor in EUR/CHF) so the absolutley only thing I do with regards to CHF is going to short it, if a viable technical opportunity presents itself. Fundamentals complicate things because of a lot of different views one could have on specific fundamental situations, but it really is not that difficult. It all comes down to monetary policy and money flows.
I am NOT talking about the mechanics of the trade itself (that's kid's stuff), I am talking about its outcome as far as the probability of the system is concerned. You are, after all, paying double the spread to initiate two positions instead of one.