https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/does-anyone-daytrade.155298/page-2#post-2324125 (Don't have to be today's post )
I like it when members post new products or new rules that interest me and they find that information before I get it. FSU does that quite often and so has JOAN. Bob
I like those rare stories of traders who have grown really large, or took risky bets...and won, But most of those stories turn out to be fake, or half-truths, or just paper trading accts,
But do they tell you about the losers? There was a trade I knew back in the late 80's. He bet on a number of take overs by always be long a lot of OTM calls. He basically made enough money with "real" trading that had edge to make up for the premium he thew away. Then the worst thing that can happen, did. He hit one and made $300,000 on that one. Paid his taxes. of have been worse if he did not. He then thought lighting would hit again and placed more of a focus on trying to do that again, vs just a part of his risk. He was broke within 3 years. Trading should be more of a business to be successful over time, IMO.
99% of those who trade whether as hobby or serious money seldom think it as a business cause they don't have to live off of it or when you in your twenties don't even think that your retirement money is real, I never did. I didn't take it serious in the beginning, it was just something that was fun. It wasn't till I lost a huge sum in the 80s turned my mental aspects that it was a business and had to manage it like any other business. Yes, I have seen many who along the way make a huge chunk out, the market gods allowing that to happen and watched all of them end up bankrupt or worse of taking their life as all of a sudden they looked at what they did in markets was more important than their family. There are reasons there are percentages used by many for risk. It is not just risk per trade, but risk of ruin of why there are percentages. And just cause one has losing trades, doesn't not mean they are personality wrong, they just wrong at the time and if they stay with a business concept and percentages, they have better chances of doing right. Long term risk low enough times with well backtested method, laws of averages one will nail larger winning trades, but if you designed and tested correctly, have to expect the unexpected as part of the business oddities that unexpected large profits and losses will happen in one's trading life. The posts I enjoy now are from 10 plus years ago, very seldom do I read anything of worth as those who know seldom write and much of ET is blowing off steam and they gripe about whatever.
Good PDF-link about probability and trading. Trading probability is not readily visible on a naked chart: https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...ice-action-traders.309232/page-3#post-4452306