Post Fed. Trade

so whats everyone thinking? I guess we should look for some kind of statement surrounding Katrina... Looking at the BIX and other financials running up beforehand, maybe we will see upside in the markets....who knows, I sure dont.....whats your sense?

 

I dunno, but does anyone else hate the pre-fed market as much as I do? I should have slept in today...

 

It sucks.

 

They should have these things at 8:30... just when i'm getting to work... hehehehe

 

Darn, sorry, I guess I killed your thread....

fwiw i think they'll raise and the market will go up a bit. In my mind there's no question that they'll raise, just how the market will react....

but my mind may not be worth too much....



-The New Guy

 

Yeah, you were right. I went up bit.

After it went down a lot.

 

This interest rate hiked was what I was waiting for. I am entering short oil and short gold at the open.

I believe that the oil market is overpriced due to inventory levels. This time of the year also marks the ample time to short (late September region) after a 20 year seasonal run up from start of September to now. As we have seen the current situation has followed this pattern so it gives me conviction to trust the model. Another interesting factor was the fact that we didnt see oil approaching the 70s even with a possible hurricane (Rita) looming in the background. The market popped and then it ceased to gain . The projection path for the hurricane actually cuts through the gulf so if the market was projecting higher prices there should have been a move to the 70s again. As for the gold trade I believe with lowered oil prices we shall see a reduction in costs which should lower the PPI and CPI for the upcoming months. However, with the gold trade I am very much on my toes with my trigger finger ready. My position isnt also that substantial to cause any lasting damage.

Lets see how this pans out.

 

Projection path:

 

Oil is going higher. The market had a huge reaction on Monday as the hurricane story happened over the weekend, but is still a 5 days out of Houston, a city that has 25% of US oil production. New Orleans had 10%. It was just a pull back before the real run begins. Have fun with your short oil.

5yr

 

there was a lot of chop for about 15 mins then bam lotsa selling... and a new trend began...wooohooooo