Possible HS Top Forming in Crude?

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by garbar, Jun 15, 2007.

  1. garbar


    Does anyone else see a possible Head and Shoulders top forming in crude? Please see the attached weekly chart.
  2. Surdo


    Good luck trading the SHORT side heading into hurricane season.

    el surdo
  3. garbar


    I'm just watching. Now isn't the time to short. The pattern isn't developed enough.
  4. pberndt


    I agree, above average hurricane season predicted by NOA, refinery utilization down, OPEC cuts by 2%, China and India, summer driving season, will only lead to greater advances for the index. Many energy stocks had 20% moves after Katrina alone.
  5. Surdo


    At the risk of talking out of both sides of my mouth, if you sold near today's top, you made nice wood trading crude!

    Look out when we do close above $70, it's not far away!

    Did you mean NOAA?

    e s
  6. garbar


    It's beginning to look a bit iffy for this to turn into an HS top pattern.
  7. garbar


    Seems like the right angle ascending triangle forecast the move up and the thing that looked like an HS top isn't going to materialize. Good call to the fundamentalists.
  8. EliteJ


    This does actually look like the beginning of a head and shoulders pattern mainly because of the increasing volume on the reaction swing and declining volume on the up swing. However, the head and shoulders pattern is primarily effective when it is accurately representing deteriorating fundamentals and market sentiment. Perhaps intraday a pattern like this on crude could be effective but not on a weekly. Only a large decrease in the demand for oil is likely to cause a reversal like that.

    Just my 2 cents:D
  9. garbar


    A bit of time has passed and crude price has moved sharply up out of the ascending right angle triangle. On the 19th a hammer formed and the next day price closed lower. This second candle also engulfed the hammer. This scenario may be like some lower prices coming for the next while. It's interesting that as I write on the 23rd crude is stuck in a range between 74.45 to 75.

    I can't trade this commodity because I have a bias in that I would like to see lower rather than higher crude prices and that bias would prevent me from properly trading. But I watch for educational value.
  10. garbar


    Here is the chart. Sorry.
    #10     Jul 23, 2007