Possible Election Fraud in Progress

Discussion in 'Politics' started by BeautifulStranger, Nov 4, 2020.

  1. Here is the full Gallup article, as discussed:

    WORLD
    FEBRUARY 13, 2020
    Faith in Elections in Relatively Short Supply in U.S.

    BY RJ REINHART


    STORY HIGHLIGHTS

    • 59% of Americans say they are not confident in the honesty of U.S. elections
    • Confidence measurably worse only in Chile and Mexico
    WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Although their faith has been shaken for some time, Americans are heading into their next presidential election with relatively little confidence in the honesty of the process. Four in 10 Americans (40%) interviewed in 2019 said they are confident in the honesty of elections in the country, while the majority (59%) said they are not.

    Americans' current level of confidence in their elections is far from the lowest it has been at times in the past decade, but it is notably one of the worst ratings across the world's wealthiest democracies. Ratings were statistically lower last year only in Chile (31%) and Mexico (30%).

    Confidence in the Honesty of Elections in OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) Countries, in 2019
    In this country, do you have confidence in each of the following, or not? How about honesty of elections?
    Yes No
    %
    %
    Finland
    89 9
    Norway 89 9
    Sweden 87 11
    Luxembourg 82 14
    New Zealand 81 17
    Switzerland 81 12
    Netherlands 77 22
    Ireland 76 20
    Germany 74 21
    Austria 72 26
    Poland 71 17
    Canada 66 33
    Slovenia 66 33
    Australia 62 35
    United Kingdom 61 33
    Greece 59 33
    France 57 41
    Japan 57 35
    Spain 56 38
    Slovakia 54 35
    Italy 53 44
    Portugal 53 44
    Estonia 52 31
    South Korea 49 48
    Belgium 46 48
    Hungary 45 42
    United States of America 40 59
    Lithuania 40 44
    Turkey 39 52
    Latvia 37 46
    Chile 31 65
    Mexico 30 68
    GALLUP WORLD POLL 2019
    The latest data for the U.S. come from the Gallup World Poll of Americans conducted in April and May 2019. At that time, eight U.S. intelligence agencies had confirmed allegations of foreign interference in the 2016 presidential election and identified attempts to engage in similar activities during the 2018 midterms. Additionally, cybersecurity experts had raised some substantial questions concerning the potential digital security vulnerabilities of computerized voting systems.

    However, Americans' doubts about their elections are not new. Majorities of Americans have consistently lacked confidence in the honesty of elections every year since 2012. Americans' lack of confidence peaked at 69% in 2016, in the midst of the presidential campaign that year.

    upload_2022-8-26_17-51-20.png

    Gallup World Poll surveying in 2016 was conducted in the midst of allegations that the process to select the Democratic Party presidential nomination had been interfered with to the detriment of then-candidate Bernie Sanders. The survey also took place after then-candidate Donald Trump alleged that the Iowa Caucus had been "stolen" from him, but prior to his claims the overall presidential election was dishonest.

    Who Is Least Confident?
    Gallup's World Poll does not ask about political affiliation, but Americans' lack of confidence is most pronounced among those who disapprove of the country's leadership, with 74% of this group reporting no confidence in the honesty of elections. Trust is also low among Americans aged 30 to 49, with 68% lacking confidence. Rounding out the three groups with the lowest levels of confidence in the honesty of elections are U.S. women, among whom 65% say they lack confidence.

    U.S. Confidence in the Honesty of Elections in 2019, by Key Subgroups
    In this country, do you have confidence in each of the following, or not? How about honesty of elections?
    Yes No
    %
    %
    All Americans
    40 59
    Gender
    Male
    46 54
    Female 35 65
    Age
    15-29
    42 58
    30-49 31 68
    50+ 45 54
    U.S. Leadership Approval
    Approve
    63 36
    Disapprove 26 74
    Urban or Rural
    Urban
    39 61
    Rural 43 57
    GALLUP WORLD POLL, APR 23-MAY 23 2019
    While rural Americans are often described by political analysts as forgotten or disaffected, there is little difference in confidence in the honesty of elections between this group and those that live in urban areas.

    Bottom Line
    Whether related to issues of foreign interference, security vulnerability, interference in the nomination process by the political elites, or just general frustration with an election outcome, the majority of Americans do not have confidence in their elections. The recent Iowa Caucuses are an example of the types of events that can shake Americans' faith in the election process and the legitimacy of the winners of elections. Institutions and fair processes are important in holding society together, and particularly so in this era of intense partisanship in the U.S.

    For complete methodology and specific survey dates, please review Gallup's Country Data Set details.

    Learn more about how the Gallup World Poll works.
     
    #2441     Aug 26, 2022
  2. easymon1

    easymon1

    Let's update my scorecard here.

    You Ready? You Gonna Get Ready?
    Yes or No Stranger.
    No.
    Check.

    1) Why not?
    OPEN QUESTION

    2) How true are polls on this matter, Stranger?
    OPEN QUESTION

    Two Questions.

    3) Please refresh me, where did I refer to "There is quite a discrepancy between the poll you found and the Gallup article."
    OPEN QUESTION

    Three Questions, lol.
    Go
    You have me confused with someone else.
    4) Otherwise, please post a link to ANY incident that you characterize above "you used to say good things about"
    OPEN QUESTION


    4 OPEN QUESTIONS

    Go
     
    #2442     Aug 26, 2022
  3. Tony Stark

    Tony Stark

    [​IMG]
     
    #2443     Aug 26, 2022
  4. easymon1

    easymon1

    What's the problem Stranger? Talk to me good buddy, cmone.

    Let's update my scorecard here.

    You Ready? You Gonna Get Ready?
    Yes or No Stranger.
    No.
    Check.

    1) Why not?
    OPEN QUESTION


    2) How true are polls on this matter, Stranger?
    OPEN QUESTION


    Two Questions.

    3) Please refresh me, where did I refer to "There is quite a discrepancy between the poll you found and the Gallup article."
    OPEN QUESTION


    Three Questions, lol.
    Go
    You have me confused with someone else.
    4) Otherwise, please post a link to ANY incident that you characterize above "you used to say good things about"
    OPEN QUESTION


    4 OPEN QUESTIONS
    Go


    Are you confusing me with Tonee with these poll related questions? LOL

    Maybe we can get you caught up here, you behind 4 Questions already and it looks like Toneee!! bailed overboard, so, just me and you Stranger.

    your Go.
     
    Last edited: Aug 26, 2022
    #2444     Aug 26, 2022
  5. Here is the statistical methodology post I discussed recently. The OP is Poindexter, who has not posted here for several years, but his analysis was often right on, stressing our resident Leftists to no end:

    Is It Time For Algorithms That Flag Potential Election Fraud? -- Please Answer Both Questions.

    Algorithms exist for almost everything else from credit card theft to consumer preferences. So why not for election fraud? Not to change or negate counts, but to flag highly unlikely results for further investigation.



    An article I read a few days ago got me to thinking about this... it said something to the effect that new ballots were discovered in Florida that favored democrats 3 to 1 in an area that was previously 2 to 1.

    There may very well be legitimate reasons for the shift. But if not, how likely is that due to chance?

    Please provide your intuitive responses to the following two questions before I post the answers (or you calculate them). Elections are not random processes like drawing colored balls from urns and this is an artificial oversimplification. But it does serve a useful purpose that I'll explain after replies are posted.

    Again, I'm looking for intuitive responses only. Please do not calculate anything.

    Situation: CNN County has an endless supply of voters and they favor democrats 2 to 1. Voting has ended. 500,000 votes were cast that favored democrats almost exactly 2 to 1.

    Question 1: 1,000 more votes are found. Assume all 1,000 voters who cast them are a random sample of the CNN County population. What is the probability that those 1,000 votes favor democrats 3 to 1 or better?

    Question 2: 10,000 more votes are found. Assume all 10,000 voters who cast them are a random sample of the CNN County population. What is the probability that those 10,000 votes favor democrats 3 to 1 or better?

    https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...on-fraud-please-answer-both-questions.326973/

    Here is the analysis and answer:

    Nobody wants to take a shot at the answers? OK. Here they are. With a brief preamble.

    Let's drop the strawmen. This is not about trying to "prove" fraud in Florida. But news reports from Florida got me thinking and I started this thread to show how counter-intuitive vote count probabilities can be.

    Why? If votes are suddenly "found" that deviate significantly from overall ratios (e.g. from 2:1 to3:1) there had better be good reasons. Because the odds of it happening by chance alone are astronomically small.

    If liberal Unicorn Village's sealed ballots were accidentally misplaced for a few hours, no problem. But a suspicious scenario would be if a large number of ballots breaking 3:1 or more are suddenly "found" that had been randomly set aside throughout the day because of random machine breakdowns in otherwise 2:1 areas.

    The problem, as stated in the OP, is answered using the binomial CDF. For perspective I'll answer questions 1 & 2 in terms of the odds of winning the Powerball Jackpot (approx. 1 in 292,000,000 with one ticket).

    Answer to Question 1: 333 expected republican votes versus 250 or less actually obtained is no big deal, right? Wrong! You're more likely to win the Powerball Jackpot with just two tickets.

    Answer to Question 2: 3,333 expected republican votes versus 2,500 or less actually obtained is nothing to be concerned about, right? That's even less likely... a lot less. You have a better chance of winning the Powerball Jackpot 8 times in a row with just one ticket per drawing.

    If you object to the problem as stated in the OP because in real life we'd be sampling without replacement from a finite population, fine. In that case the hypergeometric distribution would apply. The probabilities don't change much and the above answers would still be correct.
    https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...wer-both-questions.326973/page-3#post-4760659
     
    #2445     Aug 26, 2022
  6. Funny and not funny at the same time. While the establishment will be able to prevent any populist, non approved candidates from running for President in the future, and you might want to call that a win, but eventually you will feel like you lost. But hey, why can’t we live the life Russians live? Its not like we are better than them or entitled, right? Of course, there is Banana Republic style(Excuse the capitalization). Which do you prefer?
     
    #2446     Aug 26, 2022
  7. easymon1

    easymon1

    5) Can we pick up here?
    yes or no
    OPEN QUESTIO

    What's the problem Stranger? Talk to me good buddy, cmone.

    Let's update my scorecard here.

    You Ready? You Gonna Get Ready?
    Yes or No Stranger.
    No.
    Check.

    1) Why not?
    OPEN QUESTION


    2) How true are polls on this matter, Stranger?
    OPEN QUESTION


    Two Questions.

    3) Please refresh me, where did I refer to "There is quite a discrepancy between the poll you found and the Gallup article."
    OPEN QUESTION


    Three Questions, lol.
    Go
    You have me confused with someone else.
    4) Otherwise, please post a link to ANY incident that you characterize above "you used to say good things about"
    OPEN QUESTION


    4 OPEN QUESTIONS
    Go


    Are you confusing me with Tonee with these poll related questions? LOL

    Maybe we can get you caught up here, you behind 5 Questions already and it looks like Toneee!! bailed overboard, so, just me and you Stranger.

    your Go.
     
    #2447     Aug 26, 2022
  8. Reply to your post is inline, below:

    QUOTE="easymon1, post: 5664837, member: 82119"]Let's update my scorecard here.

    You Ready? You Gonna Get Ready?
    Yes or No Stranger.
    No.
    Check.

    1) Why not?
    OPEN QUESTION
    This is confidential. Rest assured, my reasons are between-the-eyes specific.

    2) How true are polls on this matter, Stranger?
    OPEN QUESTION
    I generally do not have high confidence in polls, especially when I don’t know their specific methodology in detail. Even then, how a question is verbally asked can influence the outcome as well as what time or day polling is conducted. Online polls may favor one demographic over another. Further, there are often recent news stories about the issue the poll is about, likely influencing results. This seems often by design. Polls over extended periods of time may have a little more credibility, but still, are their methodologies constant and fully disclosed?

    Two Questions.

    3) Please refresh me, where did I refer to "There is quite a discrepancy between the poll you found and the Gallup article."
    OPEN QUESTION
    The post was in response to Tony’s poll. You can find these polls in recent posts in this thread.

    Three Questions, lol.
    Go
    You have me confused with someone else.
    4) Otherwise, please post a link to ANY incident that you characterize above "you used to say good things about"
    OPEN QUESTION

    I am not recalling the reference.

    4 OPEN QUESTIONS

    Go[/QUOTE

    The issues I been presenting in this thread are important. While I understand most posters may be looking for some sort of quick gratification from social media, I write to a larger, often more silent audience. Hopefully some members of that audience have some positive influence. As such, please understand I may not always address questions that seem highly irrelevant to the discussion at hand. In other words, show me the content, baby!

    Time for me to take extended time off of social media, like Bugenhagen and Poindexter. After all, how much of the principles of governance as established by our forefathers are actually still in play this day? How about the seeming futility of complaining? Then there is the cost of complaining. In time and increasing risk of retribution? Have we reached the point where the cost of not complaining is less than the cost of complaining? For ourselves and a country that might not be worth saving at this point? Let it burn? No. Burn baby, burn! Just kidding. Maybe.
     
    #2448     Aug 26, 2022
  9. easymon1

    easymon1

    See Stranger, that wasn't so hard.

    1)From your answer then are we to conclude that you are TOO SCARED to watch a movie? LOL.
    1) Yes or No

    Then why all the song and dance, all the bloviation and waste my time with all this backing your scared little ass into a corner?
    Just say up front You're too scared. Case closed.

    Bloviate on wordsmith. Round and round you and tonee go.
    BFD. Don't mean shit to a toad, pal.
    Ping me if you grow a pair.
    https://www.bitchute.com/video/Zs8yJP9UA2ru/
     
    #2449     Aug 26, 2022
  10. Tony Stark

    Tony Stark


    Cool story Bro.It has nothing to do with Trump getting his ass handed to him in 2020 in a fair election that he had an unfair advantage in though.
     
    Last edited: Aug 26, 2022
    #2450     Aug 26, 2022