Possible default in December gold??

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by bond tr4der, Oct 29, 2008.

  1. Over 1.2 million oz so far I read. Within a few months there will be no COMEX gold.
     
    #71     Dec 9, 2008
  2. #72     Dec 9, 2008
  3. 4XQs

    4XQs

    By the way, did you catch this article from Seeking Alpha last Friday?

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/109...rices?source=front_page_most_popular_articles

    There is no other leveraged commodity market where short sellers increase their positions, materially, as the price rises, and increase them even more when prices are exploding, except gold and silver. The reason traders don’t normally do that is that it exposes short sellers to unlimited liability and risk. Yet, in both March and July 2008, and on countless occasions over the past 21 years, vast numbers of new gold and silver short positions were temporarily opened up, with the position holders seemingly unconcerned about the fact that precious metals had just risen exponentially, and that there was a very real potential they would bankrupt themselves with unlimited upside potential. Normal traders would not expose themselves to such unlimited risks.

    --- bla bla bla --- (real interesting, but I'll cut to the chase)

    More important, however, than dwelling on the accuracy of conspiracy theories is the fact that huge international banking firms normally do not take metal deliveries from futures markets. They normally buy on the London spot market. The fact that they are demanding delivery from COMEX means one of two things. Either the London bullion exchanges have run out of gold, or these firms are finding it cheaper to buy gold as a “future” than as a spot exchange.

    Smart traders at big firms may be buying on COMEX to sell into the spot market, for a profit. This pricing condition is known as “backwardation”. Backwardation is always the first sign that a huge price rise is about to happen. In the absence of backwardation, there is no rational explanation as to why HSBC, Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS), Goldman Sachs, and others are forcing COMEX to make large deliveries.

    The fact that this backwardation is hidden from the public eye is not surprising. In spite of the ostensible existence of a so-called “London fix”, 96% of all OTC transactions are secret and unreported. The transactions happen solely between two parties, and are done opaquely, in complete darkness. The current London fix may well be just as fake as the bank interest rate reports that comprised LIBOR proved to be, just a few months ago.

    It won’t matter much if you purchase gold at $750, $800, $850, $900 per ounce, or even much higher. All of these prices will be looking extraordinarily cheap in a few months. The price of our pretty yellow metal is about to explode, and it is probably going to soar, eventually, to levels that not even most gold bugs imagine. COMEX gold shorts will be playing the price a bit longer, in an attempt to shake out some remaining independent leveraged longs. Once that is finished, however, and it will be finished soon, the price will start to rise very quickly.
     
    #73     Dec 10, 2008
  4. I'm very long gold, not because I think it goes to the moon any week now, but because I see it as a safe store of wealth.

    Honestly, I think it will get to where the COMEX runs out of gold to meet delivery demand, but I don't think it will happen till spring, anyway. In the meantime, I think the inventories will be depleted a bit more each month.

    The reason I see inventories dropping is due to low global production, high investor demand with treasuries paying no interest, and less central bank selling, and maybe even central bank buying. The more is borrowed and wasted on bailouts and artificial stimulus ploys, the higher the debt goes, and the greater the likelihood of some sort of default.
     
    #74     Dec 10, 2008
  5. Thriftybob -who cares how little interest treasuries pay when their prices are going through the roof?
     
    #75     Dec 10, 2008
  6. jsv416

    jsv416

    that seeking alpha article is great! I am glad I am long gld....:D :D
     
    #76     Dec 10, 2008
  7. Its the newest bubble...
     
    #77     Dec 10, 2008
  8. zdreg

    zdreg

    #78     Dec 12, 2008
  9. jsv416

    jsv416

    #79     Dec 14, 2008
  10. This article isn't worth the electrons that must pass through my screen it is made up of.

    When will the perennial gold bugs start realizing how they constantly set their arguments back by destroying all of their credibility by what they write? Ferguson is clearly referring leveraging of the assets on their balance sheet. Then the writer somehow creatively interprets that to mean "gold future contracts etc"...

    So amateurish..

    I am bullish gold and silver here for obvious structural reasons, but god these gold nuts are something else. Between stuff like this and their biblical quotes...
     
    #80     Dec 14, 2008