maybe he would have been right in a different type of market. nowadays everything keeps going up no matter what the news. we did get a knee-jerk reaction on Mon. i thought we could have a couple of down days, not a couple of minutes out that bill passage.
ATR contraction suggests a major move. notice that the current ATR level (similar to may-2007) is actually lower than oct-2007 top level. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2772750#post2772750 to the above i will add: VIX hit 16.08 around oct-2007 top. VIX hit 16.17 today - probably means nothing, especially since it still has 0.09 to go to match 2007 level
curious gap-downs in SPY:$USD. to my biased eye the charts start looking more and more like Jan-11 thru Jan-20 2010 charts. and you know what happened after Jan-20: boom! and months of gains gone within days look at some of the gap-downs around the previous top and right now (one needs to look in SPY:$USB coordinates, the dollar masks some of those gaps in the naked SPY): Jan-12, Jan-18, Jan-20 Mar-15, Mar-18, Mar-24 similarly, VIX has started to pick up as in the previous gappy period.
Riskfreetrading issued another top call on Mar-24: "Our proprietary stock market models issued the following numbers as estimates of the top prices for the current bull legs: NASDAQ:QQQQ: $48.77 NYSE:SPY: $118.50 NYSE: DIA: $109.22 The market does not have to reach these prices to start a retreat. Furthermore, these prices are within 1% above the closing prices of these EFT stocks for the end of the March 23 trading session. If the predicted price levels are accurate, a retreat of the market would be around the corner, since a few days volatility is typically more than 1%."
right now it seems impossible, but the gap around SPY 112.5 will get filled eventually. i know i sound pretty insane since it is -5% from the current level! yet, look at Dec gap ~110: the market kept climbing up up up for a month and every headline in every newspaper said we can only go higher. BUT when the drop started it took only 3 days to fill the gap and MORE!!!