Possibility of Market Dump Due to Healthcare Bill

I am getting more and more convinced that the healthcare bill passage may knock down the market short-term. Share your thoughts here. this thread is for market action due to to likely bill passage.

this thread is NOT about bickering why the bill is good/bad, save those for Rennik's thread: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=194119&highlight=healthcare

 

the market could,and should, very well sell off but because its due. we were up 15+days.
health care will have nothing to do with it.

 

The Health Care bill is going to ruin the health of Americans. Sorry, I couldn't help my fucking self

 

you are right but think "THE TRIGGER". in this sense it may have a lot to do with the possible sell-off. without a news or a trigger this market could have kept going up for weeks.

 

We were down about 10% in February and you guys just keep coming back for more. Going higher.

 

Clarity = rally.
Fundamentals/Logic = meaningless.
Technicals/Momentum = indifferent.

Applies to PIIGS, Health, Jobs, Housing, Middle-east, China, etc etc etc.

 

Cramer has some valid points here:

http://www.businessandmedia.org/articles/2010/20100319055725.aspx
As CNBC “Mad Money” host Jim Cramer predicted – if it passes, get ready to see a sell-off on Wall Street. Cramer appeared on CNBC’s March 18 “The Kudlow Report,” with his former broadcast partner Larry Kudlow. Kudlow asked Cramer to elaborate on his theory ObamaCare could send the financial markets reeling or “topple the stock market,” as Kudlow described it.

“First, it is the single biggest impediment to the stock market going higher,” Cramer said. “And a lot of this has to do with what's not being talked about enough with how it's going to be paid and also about what it will do to small business formation. This bill is a disaster for both.”

Cramer said the uncertainty this health care bill present to entrepreneurs is an obstacle, but he also explained the anticipated higher taxes that will finance this legislation are going to be another barrier for higher stock prices.

“You're either going to have health care premiums go up dramatically, which is just terrible, particularly if you and I wanted to start a business,” Cramer said. “We would have no idea how much it would cost. But the last thing we want to do is start it. Probably stay at our old job. Yet you and I know that small businesses are the secret. That's how we get employment in this country. Or we have dramatically higher taxes. And it looks like -- people won't even realize it when it hits them – but you and I fought very hard for a very long time to reduce taxes and I think we played a role. Reduce taxes on capital gains, reduce taxes on dividends.”

And with higher taxes, Cramer explained the appetite for risk won’t be there for investment in the economy.

“At a time when the investor is just completely flummoxed, doesn't know what to do – I think it’s going to lead to big selling in the second half of the year, when people say, ‘Jeez, all the reasons, the favorable tax treatment that made us risk owning stocks – going away.’ Very bad for the stock market.”

 

ES already down like 6 at 6:38pm EST Sunday...probably a minor RTH opening sell-off and then later in the day buy back?

 

What to do when your country commits national sucide?
The crushing tax implications of this bill will evaporate the
fragile recovery we are in. Deficits will explode. The $$ will
collapse. The geoplolitical eminence of the USA will be irreparably harmed.

 

Double Whammy coming.....

1. U.S. Fiscal disaster is now cemented in place.

The Health Care bill passing cements the fiscal disaster coming in future years, both preventing us from recovering from the current problems and spending us into disaster when the CBO projections prove inaccurate (as they always do). It will also have the added aspect of killing the last semi-healthy sector in the economy.

2. Obama is now free to pursue even worse disasters, such as Immigration, Taxing the Hell out of Wall Street, and Cap-and-Trade.

At least when Obama was preoccupied with Health Care, it kept a lot of other bad ideas at bay. Now, the floodgates are open and we will see what a pack full of idiots can do when they are unchecked. I wonder if the damage will be so bad that by the time any of this can be undone, it will be too late.


The market impact will probably be a quick snap down first, but the ultimate impact will be a malaise that continues for years, unless it is somehow repealed or neutered later. Expect massive layoffs to kick in once the mandatory coverage aspect starts up.