Positive EV

Discussion in 'Trading' started by traderich, Oct 27, 2010.

  1. How important is EV (expected value) to trading?

    About 2 years ago I posted 'my simple yet profitable strategy'. I received a ton of response, comments etc on it.

    With the market downturn, I decided to take a break and focus on my business and another venture I was interested in.

    The other venture: Blackjack.

    A good friend of mine that I played poker with told me he had been kicked out of the casino. I asked him why and he said because he was card counting and had beat them for about $80,000 in the past 2 years.

    I was very intrigued by it and he agreed to show me how to do it. I started doing it, first with him as my coach and then on my own.

    I got greedy of course and put in some massive bet spreads which instantly got the pit boss on the phone to surveillance. It didn't take long (4 months) and I was backed off. Needless to say though, I beat those c***suckers for about $15,000. If I didn't get greedy and go from table min to table max in a matter of 3 or 4 hands as the count went up I probrably could have played for at least a couple years.

    I just got back from Vegas last week. In 6 days there I made $13,200 playing blackjack. Had an awesome time there. My first visit there.

    The luxor gave me a hard time after I beat them for $2800 in one shoe and then tried to cash out $3550 in chips. They said 'they needed to verify my chips.'

    Lesson: Positive EV in anything you do will result in profits in the long run. The casino knows that blackjack is the only game they offer that an intelligent player can beat for $35-$50/hr with bet spreads of $25-$250/hand. Of course you can make more if you get greedy like me and spread from $25-$1000/hand, or in my case, 2 hands at a time, but then you will shorten your life at the casino.

    Funny how they can threaten to arrest you for winning! Casinos run the dirtiest business.