Only in your dreams. My observation is that we are going much lower in the future. This particular chart was created by a trader much more experienced and professional then myself. In any event, I had drawn something similiar on my own charts. A trend line has been broken after forming in a bearish wedge. On the 12 month chart, you can see where we havent broken clearly over the cup. There is a solid trend channel in place for the last 9 or so months. I would be greatly surprised if we head higher from here in the intermediate term....in the short term we are headed lower...
Perhaps. But in the meantime, your TZA trade is toast. You need to be more nimble, friend, and quit letting your ego get in the way of admiting that your wrong right now. It may come in later, but there's no way to know. There was no reason to take a loss today when TZA was up 2% at the open. If you later felt that it was going back up, THEN you could buy in again. Let's examine that again. TZA up 2% at the open, and you held, and added lower. Now it's lower than your 34.40 add. That's dumb. You may have even added more as it creeped up a little, if you did as your next following post stated. Now, if you were conservative, you would have sold at the open for 2%. Bought again at 34.40 - which wasn't a bad buy point given your conviction - and then sold again when price started down again and maybe made another 2%. So up 4% on the day. Instead, I'd guess that you're down 12%+ today. Toast.
Here are some of Port's other great calls. Each link shows a call in his own words and a chart with an arrow showing where he made it. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2383163&#post2383163 http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2376406&#post2376406 http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2383159#post2383159
I make PLENTY of wrong calls too. But I also don't hold a position on the way down, just cuz I think I'm right. Given his situation, i woulda gotten out real quick this am. And as long as I held my convictions, I woulda re-entered as I laid out. When it became obvious that I was wrong, i woulda re-evaluated. The lesson here is - money management.
LOLZ. Again, money management skills are important to have. So is being humble and admitting to mistakes quickly. I write this not for Port, cuz who knows if he actually trades or not. There seems to be plenty of those guys here. I write this for anyone that was in the same situation that I was several years ago, and didn't know shit.
You can say that again. I wanted to short with both fist seeing how the futures were shaping up. But 30 mins into the trading day, I realized I was wrong, and had part of my skull handed to me. Tomorrow is another day, but the set up today looks like 900 on the SPX may happen. Any thoughts?
Honestly, I have absolutely no idea what the future brings. I will say that I held FAS overnight for 2 reasons. 1- it closed at its high. 2- I'm up 25%+ on it, so if it gaps down a little, it's of little consequence. This doesn't mean that I think tomorrow will be an up day. I will react the same way tomorrow. If it's up at the open, and heads down even a little, I'm out. Then re-evaluate, and re-enter in whatever direction looks right.