Port1385 says to "double down" in your 3x inverse positions!!!

Discussion in 'ETFs' started by Port1385, Apr 15, 2009.

  1. I sniped some SRS & FAZ @ 27.00 & 9.00, tight stop loss, we'll see how this one plays out tomorrow. I might hit up TZA as well.
    #21     Apr 16, 2009
  2. S&P 500 is at 864.. I guess when you said "there is no better time than right now" you were pretty wrong. 20 points wrong.

    Doubling-down is one of the worst things a swing trader can do. You're failing to admit a mistake and instead adding and "hoping" for a turnaround.
    #22     Apr 17, 2009
  3. If you are correct, I would certainly state a good call. But you weren't yesterday, it doesn't APPEAR like you will be again today (Friday). I'm sure you could be right eventually, but then so was stock_trad3r. The trick, it would seem, is getting the timing right. And that, it would seem, is your issue.
    #23     Apr 17, 2009
  4. We are almost there...just a few more days....almost....
    #24     Apr 17, 2009
  5. I guess what would be good to know is when you think this will occur. I understand from your last post you say a few more days. Gotcha. But when you say in the OP that "there's no better time than right now" you indicated Wed'/Thurs of this week. If someone is leveraged buying these ETFs, that might not have worked out so well.
    #25     Apr 17, 2009
  6. I love watching DIA... it's a choppy war zone. One will inevitably prevail. I'm hoping it's the one that leads to a rediscovery of the fundamentals--but as was stated in some other post, the market is only irrational when it's not giving profit to your position...
    #26     Apr 17, 2009
  7. Just went over my charts, this is what I have so far. The current "uptrend" is at the same slope as the first one back in year 2002.

    #27     Apr 18, 2009
  8. Thats the first bottom and rise out of the three. I used the duplicate trend line function on prophet and found that its the same steep slope as that one. I looked at the cash spy and found that the pullback on volume during the subsequent rise was similiar. Lets see if history repeats...

    I think it will revisit the same fib it pivoted off of at 666 before making a decision. The fundamentals do seem a lot worse then they were back in 2002. I remember back then only the guys up in silicon valley were worried about jobs, but this time around it seems like everyone is worried...
    #28     Apr 18, 2009
  9. kowboy


    Excellent thread Port. Thanks much.
    #29     Apr 18, 2009
  10. Look at the spy back in 2002 then look at the current one.

    Look at 2002 chart. The volume at one point roughly doubles to 200 million from 100 million. The 200 million becomes the new normal after a certain point on the chart. You have 3 bottoms. On each bottom, then you have an advance on volume less then 200 million. Finally, it climbs out of the pit on about 200 million average volume.

    Now look at the present day spy chart. The volume before the downtrend was at 1 billion average. Now 2 billion becomes the new normal. If history repeats then we will need at least 2 billion to climb out of the pit. I think there has to be one or two more retractions though. It makes sense to me, because there has to be enough volume to clear out the overhead supply.

    Finally, look at Broadcomm;) My opinion is the BRCM chart looks most similiar to today's spy chart. It would have climbed out of the pit, but there simply wasnt enough volume to pull it out and finally the bears one on this one.

    Remember that 30% of the market is traded by program trading. No humans hitting the buttons, but computer programs making interpretations as to what is going on. There are also no more specialists to moderate the price during up or down-trends which is a serious flaw. If you want to know why price is going up so steeply and down so steeply then there is your answer. Once price goes through a certain boundary on the chart, then it keeps falling until it hits another boundary. When price falls, there is nothing to catch it until a computer program states its time to buy. No more guy at a terminal at the NYSE trying to moderate the selloff, but big waterfall selloffs. Eventually, the specialist will return but not until we go through a few more waves bankrupting investors.

    Specialists should be required for every publicly traded stock, but nows in the hands of computer programs which have been known to cause nasty crashes and huge waterfall selloffs in short time. The 1929 crash would have been more severe had it not been for specialists moderating the downtrend.

    This time we are at the hands of manipulated computer programs as we go through this nasty once in a lifetime case of deleveraging.



    #30     Apr 18, 2009