Don't worry, Harris needs to win the popular popular vote by 3%+ to win the battleground sates. Probably by over 4% like Biden had to. She is not that far ahead in the national polling, trump is going to take the battle ground states easy.
Latest TIPP daily tracker: Recognized by The Washington Post in 2020 as the most accurate national presidential poll
Over 60% of the electorate would prefer two different candidates. Election stays close in final weekend with a dispirited electorate: Poll https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/ele...dispirited-electorate-poll/story?id=115278707
Dead-heat poll results are astonishing – and improbable, these experts say It’s possible the tied race reflects not the sentiments of the voters, but rather risk-averse decision-making by pollsters https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/02/what-polls-mean-so-far-trump-harris-election-voters
The latest New York Times/Siena poll offers a clue that voters have been shifting down the stretch. “We asked voters when they decided to support their candidate. Among those who said they decided over ‘the last few days,’ Ms. Harris had a 58% to 42% lead — including leading, 66% to 34%, among late deciders in the Sun Belt, while Mr. Trump led, 60% to 40%, among late deciders in the North.”
“The British are a-coming. This time, they’re wielding a new polling technique with a huge survey sample that some say is more accurate than anything currently in widespread use in U.S. politics — and it’s tentatively predicting a Kamala Harris win,” Politico reports. “Focaldata, a U.K. polling company, questioned more than 31,000 voters across the United States over the past month for an innovative type of survey called “MRP” that has become influential in Britain in recent years.” “Combining the MRP results with their large-scale online swing state polling Focaldata assesses Harris is likely to take Michigan, with a lead of nearly 5 points, Nevada with a lead of about 2 points over Trump, and with a slight edge in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.”
What happened to the "lesser of two evils" crew? Crickets. FWIW, I like Kamala and thought she was one of the best debaters in the Senate. She killed in during confirmation hearings and made Kavanaugh cry. LP should be showing those moments in their ads.
Nate Silver's election model and national polling average suggests Trump has an 85% chance of winning the election on Tuesday. POPULAR VOTE: Harris: 48.5% (+0.9) Trump: 47.6% ELECTORAL COLLEGE ODDS: Tump: 85% Harris: 14.6% BREAKDOWN: This is due to the "Electoral College bias" (highlighted below). Models are focusing on battleground state polls individually, and do not solely calculate the odds based on national polls. Silver's own model says that because of the Electoral College, Harris MUST WIN the popular vote by 2-3 points to make this a truly "tossup" race. Anything under 2-3 = Trump is the favorite. Right now, the national and state polls are severely out-of-step with each other. If the popular vote ends up as Silver's polling average, it would take a monumental realignment for Trump to lose.