Why do you only talk about 2016, in 2020 third party candidates had 3 points in NYT poll and Biden still got 51 in final results. This race is going to be like 2020, not 2016.
You are counting the Libertarian candidate,who doesn't get left wing votes.Nearly all votes for the Green Party come from left wing voters. In 2020 the Green party candidate polled at 0.2 %.Stein and West are now polling at 1.5% ,and I think thats a big underestimate.
Biden lead by 7 in national polling and 100 in electoral college polling.Harris is losing in the national polling and down by 86 in electoral college polling.The polls told us Biden would win in 2020 just as they are telling us Harris will lose in 2024.
Harris is at 51 in many polls just like Biden, they bumped Trump to his historical average of 46.5-47% which is what the margin was in 2020. Just today there were two polls showing the exact margin as 2020.
In aggregate polling Harris is at 48.4, 0.2 points lower than Trump.On this day in 2020 Biden was +7.5.
You complain about those very same pollsters for not being accurate in 2020 but you are happy to rely on them now without believing they are over-correcting like many polls did in 2022. Very convenient.
They (RCP aggregate) were accurate in picking both the popular vote and electoral college winner in 2020( 2004,2008,2012 as well) .I'm not complaining about them I just point out they underestimated Trump in 2016 and 2020 and I believe they will so again in 2024.
Even though Trump got 46% both times which is what the polls underestimated, suddenly he is going to get 50% this time?