NEW HAMPSHIRE in play: Praecones Analytica /@NewHampJournal poll: Trump 50.2% (+0.4) Harris 49.8% 622 RV, 10/24-26 New Hampshire has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since the 2000 election.
Suddenly Polymarket isnt trustworthy because of a poll from Praecones https://polymarket.com/event/new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner
Allan Lichtman, a historian and professor at American University known for accurately predicting presidential elections, is standing by his call that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 election. Litchman has received plenty of backlash since making his prediction back in September but he told FOX 5’s Tom Fitzgerald he got even more pushback for his 2016 prediction that Donald Trump would win. However, Lichtman says the vitriol his detractors are bringing into this election cycle is different from those before it. "I am used to pushback, I’ve been getting it for 42 years," Lichtman said. "But, I have to tell you, I have never experienced the kind of hate that has been heaped upon me this time." Lichtman says he places the blame for this squarely on Trump and extremist rhetoric. "I’ve had the most vulgar, scurrilous, violent threatening kind of communication heaped on me. The safety of my family has been compromised. We’ve had to put the police on notice, secure our property, and I absolutely attribute this to the toxic politics of Donald Trump," Lichtman said. "Before Donald Trump, never saw anything remotely like this." https://www.fox5dc.com/news/preside...stands-call-harris-will-win-2024-election.amp
VIRGINA in play as well POLL: HARRIS: 48% (+2) TRUMP: 46% @Rasmussen_Poll /American Thinker | 10/24-10/25 - 1,014 LV
I think 75% (or more) of my posts are aggregate polling,especially RCP,is right.I gave a detailed response to your Alan Lichtman question.
He's good.His first prediction loss was because of the Green Party.His 2nd will in large part be because of the Green Party as well.
Litchman is big into watching momentum. Thats how he picked Trump in 2016 Kamala had record momentum for 60 days, now its gone...Litchman is toast
My system that I just noticed over the years casual observation, is Incumbent party wins unless the incumbent was in office for 8 years. Then it switches to the other party because people want a change. I think that predicts 8 out of the last 10 elections. Only Bush Snr and Trump didn't get re-elected. But the party that has been in power for 8 years nearly always loses because people really want a change at that point, too many broken promises..
Funny how this criticism doesn't apply to RCP who have a smaller and error prone track record compared to Lichtman.