No Sir,it is not.When the Democrat is doing far worse then Hillary Clinton who lost and Joe Biden who only won the electoral college by less than 50,000 votes this race is not close.
Again with the opinion pieces, I wanted a technical discussion but you don't seem able to actually read the top line numbers in surveys. We got it, you believe RCP is the Holy Grail, thanks for repeating ad infinitum.
New polling from the Alliance for Black Equality, a super PAC mobilizing Black voters in swing states, found that Harris has increased her support by 10 points with Black Generation Z men since early October. Overall, Harris’s support among young Black men increased from 59 percent to 69 percent between Oct. 4 and Oct. 19. Among Black men ages 23-29, her support rose from 49.9 percent to 62.2 percent. Similarly, among Black men 18-22, support skyrocketed from 47.7 percent to 52.7 percent. If she can continue to make these types of gains over the next week, the poll predicts Harris would be able to win more than 90 percent of Black voters’ support nationwide. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4956765-vice-president-harris-black-voters/
I think The NY Times,most other polls,and Barack Obama is a better source when it comes to Black voters support for Harris than an unknown superpac.
A new YouGov survey shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump nationally among likely voters, 51% to 47%. Among respondents who say they will definitely vote, Harris leads 52% to 46%.
75% of your posts are literally "the polls are wrong so we have to handicap them" Thoughts on Alan Lichtman? https://www.fox5dc.com/news/preside...man-stands-call-harris-will-win-2024-election He got 9 out of the last 10 presidential races right, only missing Gore v Bush. His model is based on a factor analysis of the previous 160 years in American politics.
Every cycle we see polls go from registered voters to likely voters...True. But, that its not what results in the unskewing... in my view. For instance currently some polls do show both, registered voters and likely voters. The ratios are pretty much identical. In past cycles sometimes Republicans picked up a point or two in a few of the polls. But it was not what caused the unskewing or herding. ---- Ironically, I think the polls have been more honest than ever but I don't trust them at all because I suspect there are a few unpolled things going on.
exgoper... your last two "polls" were dated af. Your link says your survey was from October 1st til now. And it said the microdata will be released in 2025. You can trust that poll as much as you trust Trump or I trust a Pelosi. Source: Preliminary data from the 2024 Cooperative Election Study, fielded by YouGov from Oct. 1st - Oct. 25th. N = 78,247 American adult respondents. Post-stratification weights are implemented to make the sample nationally representative of American adults by gender, age, region, education, race, the interaction of education and race, home ownership, and 2020 presidential vote. Adult population targets defined using the most recent 5-year American Community Survey. Probabilistic likely voter weights applied imply N = 48,732 likely voters. Microdata from the study will be released publicly in 2025. *Follow this link for more on how likely voter weights are created *Follow this link for more information on the CES Special thanks to Caroline Soler for her work in producing this app.