Polling 2024

Discussion in 'Politics' started by poopy, Jul 28, 2024.

2024 Election Outcome

Poll closed Nov 5, 2024.
  1. Trump Loses

    46.2%
  2. Harris Wins

    69.2%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. exGOPer

    exGOPer

    Any comments on why the pollsters are changing the electorate by 12% from urban to rural by a massive margin?

    Did the electorate change so much in 4 years?

    Any comments on Trump's ceiling of 46% in last 2 elections and current polls showing something similar.

    Why don't you want to discuss these important topics instead of opinion editorials about Gaza and Wisconsin.
     
    #771     Oct 28, 2024

  2. Every election the side that is polling poorly has excuses why the polls are wrong,yet the RCP has an 80% and 100% prediction record.I'll stick with the overall record as long as its good.
     
    #772     Oct 28, 2024
  3. exGOPer

    exGOPer

    I am not even saying they are wrong, I am asking whether you have any explanation how the electorate changed 12% in four years.
     
    #773     Oct 28, 2024

  4. After debating endlessly with the right in 2012 over their assertions Romney was really ahead 5-10 points because the polls were skewed I no longer have interest in debating the subject.Pollsters have a solid enough record to stand on against the critics of the side that is doing poorly in the polls imo.
     
    #774     Oct 28, 2024
  5. upload_2024-10-28_14-53-52.png
     
    #775     Oct 28, 2024
  6. exGOPer

    exGOPer

    I am not asking you for a debate, since you seem to have so much opinion on polling - I asked you a simple question about the current sample size. It's pretty clear that pollsters are over-correcting for their mistakes in the previous cycles and yet Trump couldn't breach 47% and yet you have no opinions on the subject other than quoting RCP Electoral College map like its some holy grail. They are always wrong in a close race and they were massively wrong in 2022 - just check all the Senate races.
     
    #776     Oct 28, 2024
  7. All my post on polls are regarding presidential polls,which I have said I believe pollsters put more effort into than Senate and House races.
     
    #777     Oct 28, 2024
  8. exGOPer

    exGOPer

    But I am talking about presidential polls as well, how are pollsters expecting a 12% change in the electorate in four years compared to the actual results in 2020. How is that possible?
     
    #778     Oct 28, 2024

  9. They are always right when they have the race not being close.

    upload_2024-10-28_15-4-55.png



    upload_2024-10-28_15-5-15.png




    With the current map not being close at all I expect they will be right again.

    upload_2024-10-28_15-6-28.png
     
    #779     Oct 28, 2024
  10. Again,this is another argument criticizing the polls from the side that is doing poorly in the polls.Presidential polls have a solid enough record that this debate is not worth having.
     
    #780     Oct 28, 2024