The point is for polling to be valid, some pollsters need to be way off. Flipping a coin will give you a 50/50 result only about .50 percent of the time. There should be a lot more “noisy” results. We should be seeing some 4-6 point splits with MOEs of 3.5 to 5.6. It is very likely pollsters are bending to people like you who think because their last polls were off they are doing something wrong. When the truth is people aren’t smart enough to understand statistical distributions.
Most pollsters reduced the weight on their recency voters, giving more weight to low propensity voters. Meaning their likely voter models look more like registered voter models. For me, I will be watching white and black women. The southwest and Florida is gone for democrats so the Hispanic voter isn’t going to move the electoral college count. Trump or Harris may sweep the swing states. The truth is that this year, ironically, I’m the guy saying don’t trust polls. And with untrustworthy polls and I believe highest enthusiasm I’ve ever seen no one really has a great idea of what the likely outcome will be beyond what their gut tells them.
Clinton + 3.2 Harris -0.1 Clinton +6 electoral college votes Harris -86 electoral college votes On to 2028.
What's your take on Alan Lichtman's projections. He was right 9 out of the last 10 times (only getting Gore vs Bush Jr wrong). His model doesn't look at polls, which we know are adjusting to a new world in so many different ways.
I greatly respect Alan Lichtman's opinions and predictions.I only have one doubt that my analysis and the polls are wrong,and that doubt is because of Alan Lichtman's prediction. While I greatly respect Alan Lichtman's opinions and predictions I think he is wrong this time.I think he is wrong because he gave many of the keys in system to Harris that should not go to her imo. For example he gave the economy key to Democrats/Harris.Nearly all polls show the majority of Americans say the economy is bad and nearly all polls show the majority of voters say they trust Trump more than Harris to improve the economy. Another key he gave to Harris is no 3rd party threat.This baffles me because the one and only loss on his prediction record is because of the Green Party.The Green Party has caused Democrat to lose 2 of the last 6 presidential elections and will play a major part in Harris losing a week from now.How many times does the Democrat Party have to lose because of The Green Party before Mr Lichtman recognizes they are a major threat to the Democrat Party whenever progressive voters are angry with the Democrat Party? Jill Stein has more support now than she did in 2016.Michigan,Wisconsin and Arizona has hundreds of thousands of Muslim voters,in all three of those states polls show Jill Stein getting the majority of the Muslim vote over Harris and Trump.Polls show Stein polling far higher nationwide now than she did in 2016. Biden got 80% of the Muslim vote in 2020.I have voted Democrat all my life,including Biden,Clinton and Obama.I have never voted Republican or Green Party,tomorrow morning I will be voting for Jill Stein.I personally many people who voted for Biden in 2020 that will be doing the same. Another key he gave to Harris is foreign policy,has he not noticed the US supported genocide in Gaza and how angry it has millions of left wing voters? In the Michigan Democrat primary 100,000 Democrats voted non committed because of the war in Gaza,50,000 did so in the Wisconsin.I was already angry with Biden and considering not voting for him before Gaza but his and the Democrat Party support of the modern day Hitlers genocide in Gaza was the final straw that lead me to voting for Jill Stein tomorrow.Polls and the uncommitted votes in the Democrat primary show many others will be doing the same. So while I respect Mr Alan Lichtman I think he is wrong this time,one of the reasons being the same reason he was wrong in 2000.