One interesting point that came out of a poll regarding whether Trump was a fascist -- was that a large number of Republicans supported Trump because he is a fascist. They found that being a fascist was a feature rather than a bug. These MAGA people actively are cheering on the end of democracy in the United States.
There's always little things I like to pick up on, and this is certainly one of them. But regarding the young Hispanic vote, male and female, I think this is worth pointing out. Constellation Brands owns Modello in the U.S. (Outside the U.S its Inbev). This is the #1 selling beer in this country. Or it was. Either way, it's close. It probably still is. Now Constellation Brands is like P&G or any other mega-consumer product company from a Madison Ave marketing standpoint. They spend millions upon millions researching their markets and then producing their ads. If anyone has watched any of the NCAA or NFL football games for the last 6 weeks, it is painfully obvious what kind of mindset Modelo thinks its base is in. Fight/win/macho/female macho... I mean their commercials are as Trumpian as one can get. Coincidence? Maybe. But these companies have a finger on the pulse of their consumers, and apparently Modello believes bold and macho (both sexes) is where its consumers are. Again, they're not dummies when it comes to marketing. So yeah it's a little thing, but imo it reinforces what most are already saying... that Trump is gonna set records with the Hispanic vote in aggregate this time around.
So I went to review cross tabs of the ABC poll being hyped today... and saw that this poll is actually an older poll conducted about 7 days ago... so calling it new it is bullshit, But the sample was very interesting... (on its surface anyway) here are 2 quotes from the pdf. "ABC NEWS/IPSOS POLL: The Closing Days EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 7 a.m. Sunday, Oct. 27, 2024" "METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted online via the probability-based Ipsos KnowledgePanel® Oct. 18-22, 2024, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 2,808 adults, including 2,392 registered voters and 1,913 likely voters. Partisan divisions among all adults are 29-29-30 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents; 32-32-29 percent among registered voters; and 35-35-27 percent among likely voters." --- A new ABC News/Ipsos poll finds Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump among likely voters nationally, 51% to 47%, “with some pro-Harris groups showing a bit more propensity to vote.” Key takeaway: “Compared with earlier this month, Harris has regained a more customary Democratic advantage among Hispanic people and widened her advantage among suburban women, while remaining strong in core groups including Black people.”
This is an impossible level of closeness. There should be, theoretically, some outliers of the polls. In 2012 there was similar herding on the national polling but the state level polling proved to be pretty robust. This year shows even the state polling is too close when pollsters are showing ties at 47/48. Either the race is super tight and pollsters have stumbled on a magical method or the pollsters have pretty much thrown in their hat and just hiding in the crowd because the blowback in recent elections has been more than they can handle. Whatever it is, this is one in a million level of similarity.
I agree with your observation, it is remarkable. But, I think this is the reason. Just in the last 7 days many of the polls have revealed their samples. Of the National polls which have revealed their cross tabs in the last 7 days... all the samples have been between D plus 4 and D and R evenly split. So the polls are similar because their samples ae similar. (this was not the case in past cycles to the same degree) The potential for deviation is basically how the polls assemble the independents. I have noticed some polls skew towards D and some have been about 50/50. I short, on election day I will be interested to see: a. How are Independents really voting. The media has telling us Independents favor Harris. I am have serious trouble believing that. But, I have no data to say they are wrong. b. are Latinos and/or black men really tilting towards Trump. Again, the media was telling us today that is not happening c. Is Gallup correct and now there are more Rs Than Ds. In which case trump probably wins by comfortable margins. d. maybe one sides turnout will surprise us all at the voting booth... like last time. It is still amazing how many votes Biden got.
ABC polling. LOL, look at their polling results historically. This is just BS, a targeted BS of course.