Polling 2024

Discussion in 'Politics' started by poopy, Jul 28, 2024.

2024 Election Outcome

Poll closed Nov 5, 2024.
  1. Trump Loses

    46.2%
  2. Harris Wins

    69.2%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. exGOPer

    exGOPer

    Why do you assume pollsters didn't correct it? In fact they maybe overcorrecting in some polls.

    The real question is why are some pollsters projecting suburban and urban vote share to go from a combined 80% to 68% (using Emerson as an example) from 2020 to 2024. Rural goes from 20% or just under to 32%.

    That’s a Titanic shift in the electorate and it’s why they’re getting tied national numbers.


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    An increasing number of Americans say Donald Trump is too old to be president — but not as many as when President Joe Biden faced similar concerns about his age over the summer,” The Independent reports.

    “A new poll from YouGov found that 44% said Trump, at age 78, is too old to lead the executive branch. That figure is up from 35% who said the same in a similar February survey.”
     
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2024
    #741     Oct 27, 2024
  2. exGOPer

    exGOPer

    A new ABC News/Ipsos poll finds Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump among likely voters nationally, 51% to 47%, “with some pro-Harris groups showing a bit more propensity to vote.”

    Key takeaway: “Compared with earlier this month, Harris has regained a more customary Democratic advantage among Hispanic people and widened her advantage among suburban women, while remaining strong in core groups including Black people.”
     
    #742     Oct 27, 2024
    gwb-trading likes this.
  3. [​IMG]

    :):D:):D
     
    #743     Oct 27, 2024
    exGOPer likes this.

  4. 1.They said in 2020 pollsters corrected the polls from 2016,they ended up underestimating Trump even more.

    2.RCP's first poll was for the 2004 election.Pollsters have been making adjustments since 2004.With all those years and adjustments RCP has still gotten the popular vote winner right 5 out of 5 times and the electoral college winner right 4 out of 5 times,with the only one being wrong was the one when they only had Hillary up 6 electoral college votes.So even with adjustments,its extremely likely they will still get the overall popular vote and electoral college winner right,especially in the case of Trump where RCP's electoral college map has him up 86 electoral college votes which leaves a lot of room for error.
     
    #744     Oct 27, 2024
    Buy1Sell2 likes this.
  5. exGOPer

    exGOPer

    And they overestimated Republicans in 2022, that was the correction.

    RCP is just an aggregator, we are talking about pollsters themselves. There is no reason to get religious about RCP getting something right 4 out of 5 times as if that's a long track record.

    You didn't respond to Trump's ceiling of 47% or the pollsters shifting rural and electoral vote by 12%.
     
    #745     Oct 27, 2024
  6. Texas voters think Ted Cruz is a 'jerk' — but they'll vote for him anyway: report

    [​IMG]
     
    #746     Oct 27, 2024
  7. Can you even comprehend what he's saying????

    'You're losin' the house!' Onlookers ridicule Trump as 'crowd empties out' while he speaks

    Critics ridiculed Donald Trump on Saturday after he gave a speech in Pennsylvania where, before he was finished speaking, many of his own fans had already funneled out.
     
    #747     Oct 27, 2024
  8. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    Trump can't even comprehend what he is saying.
     
    #748     Oct 27, 2024
    Atlantic likes this.
  9. In the meantime.......

     
    #749     Oct 27, 2024
  10.  
    #750     Oct 27, 2024