From the Washington Post... Polls are tied, voters dig in and Harris, Trump scratch for any advantage https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...s-trump-scratch-for-any-advantage/ar-AA1sYu3X
“If I’m Trump I’m a little more worried than the Harris campaign, because the Trump campaign needed to change the makeup of the electorate to find an advantage that wasn’t there four years ago,” he said. “They need to turn out young people and people who don’t regularly vote — and there is no evidence of that materializing.” https://nymag.com/intelligencer/art...nning-the-early-vote-should-harris-panic.html
Steve Kornacki drills down into some comparisons of 2024 polls and the actual 2020 vote in key demographic categories and suggests there are signs the Trump vote is now being captured fully. In Michigan and Wisconsin, ground zero for 2020 polling errors based on underestimation of white working-class voters, Trump’s lead in that demographic is actually higher than his 2020 performance. So maybe the pollsters have successfully adjusted for past polling errors. Meanwhile, the Harris camp has grounds for suspecting her ultimate vote could be poorly reflected in the polls: From Harris’ standpoint, part of the hope now is that polling is undercounting her support with what have long been core Democratic constituencies: Black, Hispanic and young voters … The concern for Harris, obviously, is that her Hispanic support is far lower than Biden’s was, both in the 2020 polls and the final election results. But much of Trump’s new Hispanic support comes from younger voters who have not participated at high levels in past elections. If these voters end up sitting on the sidelines in this election, Harris could end up faring much better with Hispanics than the polling now shows. It’s also somewhat encouraging for her that Biden performed better in the election with Black voters than polling had suggested. Harris will need this to happen again. There’s a reason Team Trump is devoting much of its get-out-the-vote strategy to low-propensity voters. If he doesn’t reach and motivate them, he could underperform compared to polls showing him making gains among Black, Hispanic, and first-time voters.
Final NY Times poll. Bad for Harris-Trump +1. Worse for Harris-Black vote 79% Hispanic vote 51% (Biden received 92% and 65%) Worst for Harris-Jill Stein 2% (double her 2016 performance). Also noteworthy only 89% of voters who voted for Biden in 2020 will vote for Harris,a huge 11% loss of votes (I am a part of that group) while 97 % of voters who voted for Trump in 2020 will vote for him again in 2024. 2% of 2020 Trump voters are voting for Harris while 5 % of 2020 Biden voters are voting for Trump.
Nathan Gonzales notes Donald Trump’s static support: 2016 Election Result: 46.1% 2020 Election Result: 46.8% 2024 538 Polling Average: 46.6%
Trump would be in trouble if Harris was leading by 8 points and 100 electoral votes. We know from 2016 that Trump can win with 46% if the Democrats numbers aren't like Biden's in 2020 (Trump will get more than 46% though).Not only are Harris's numbers not like Biden's,they're worse than Hillary's.
Trumps 2020 538 Polling Average was 43.4%. 1.538 underestimated Trump in 2020(and 2016) and are likely doing it again. 2.Trump went from 43.4 in 538's 2020 polling to 46.6 in in 538's 2024 polling,so he's not static in their polling.