I am talking about 538 in 2024. Tell us what they are indicating. Or we can discuss RCP in 2022. However I am interested more in the current year rather than endlessly discussing the past.
But why are you looking at electoral college to gauge the margin of error, you are not doing that for 2020 when Biden won comfortably in the electoral college with the high margin of error in polling. Your argument isnt consistent - you look at electoral college in 2012 but not the polling margin error in 2012 while looking at polling error in 2020 while ignoring electoral college.
I wouldn't expect a pollster to be doing well in the present or future if they haven't done well in the past. RCP's 2022 generic congressional polling had Republicans +2.5,they won by 2.8. As previously stated mid terms aren't the Superbowl of politics so I don't expect pollsters to put up the same effort and resources as they do Presidential elections.I don't know RCP's or pollsters full record on all House and Senate races so I don't use them to predict House and Senate races. I too am interested in the current year but the best predictor of the future is the past imo and in the past RCP has been more accurate than 538.
I do use RCP's electoral college map to predict the electoral college winner.Biden's 2020 RCP's electoral college lead was 100 electoral college votes and he won the electoral college.Trumps current RCP's electoral college lead is 86 so I am expecting him to do the same. I am not gauging margin of error.I am predicting electoral college winner and loser.
Its that but also they are magical thinkers and do believe that if enough people believe, reality bends to this shared vision. Only snag is if that's is true, the fraction of a percent of MAGAs in the world are up against vastly more who don't want to hear his name for years