So what is the source of these numbers? Because I can tell you that most recent polls do not have Trump leading in the majority of swing states.
RCP.RCP has Trump leading in all swing states and by 86 Electoral College votes overall. https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college
TRUMP CAPTURES LEAD IN RCP POLLING AVERAGE Current: Trump 48.4% (+0.1) Harris: 48.3 10/26/20: Biden +7.8 10/26/16: Clinton +5.4
You were arguing how polls are overestimating Harris, I pointed out when polls overestimated Republicans in 2012 and in 2022 - you don't want to discuss them at all for some reason. Red wave of 2022, everyone remembers that well.
New Poll: Harris only leads Trump 66%-27% in New York City, which would be worst Democratic performance since 1988, according to NYT/Siena poll
What happens when you make a good decision for VP...and a bad decision Here is the date of the VP debate This debate turned the election
I'll discuss it Sir. In regards to your first point, that is not what I was arguing.Mr Covertibility posted a tweet suggesting 2024 was like 2012 because RCP had the national polling close.What Mr Covertibility's tweet left out was while RCP's national polling was close in 2012, in state/ electoral college polling Obama's lead was 68 electoral college votes ,while Harris is down 86 electoral college votes to Trump.Huge difference and it makes RCP's 2012 and 2024 overall polling no way comparable. RCP's 2022 generic congressional polling only had Republicans +2.5 so I personally did not expect a red wave in 2022. RCP doesn't poll,they have a model to aggregate 3rd party polls,which I believe they are the best at but they can only use what they have to work with.The Presidential Election is The Super Bowl of politics and I expect pollsters to put more effort and resources into presidential polls than House and Senate polls so I don't expect House and Senate polls to be as accurate. I do not know RCP's complete record in House and Senate races thus I have not made any arguments or predictions on House or Senate races based on their polling.I know since RCP's inception they are 5-0 in predicting the popular vote winner and 4-1 in predicting the electoral college vote winner, with their only one wrong being when they only had Clinton up by 6 electoral college votes,a huge difference from the 86 electoral college votes they currently have Trump ahead.I am predicting the presidential election based on RCP polling,not House, Senate,or mid term races.
The 538 that had Biden + 9.4 ? The 538 that had Biden +7.9 in MI ? Or + 8.4 in WI ? I think I'll do like Tom Brady and pass Sir.