I don't know what you are talking about I am talking about the fact RCP had Obama ahead in state polling and correctly predicted he would win the Electoral College by a large margin in 2012.I expect they are right again this time especially since Trumps Electoral College lead over Harris is even larger than Obamas lead over Romney.
IMO if it is nail-bitingly close then the Democrats should be panicking. Democrats panicking for no reason, pollsters say – US race nail-bitingly close Polls suggest Harris and Trump still neck-and-neck, but Democrats pessimistic and Republicans confident https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/26/presidential-election-polls-close
Third party support in 2016 was 19% with 11% undecided. Those are huge margins, almost one third who may have broke for Trump after the Comey letter. "Gary Johnson garnered 14% and Jill Stein received 5%, with 11% remaining undecided." Now 11% moved to Harris with only 4% supporting third party and 7% to Trump. "4% supporting third-party candidates and 6% undecided"
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/26/politics/pennsylvania-haley-voters-trump-harris/index.html Why these Republicans think voting against Trump could save the GOP
You can have it Sir.Arguing over 1 poll when Trump is leading in RCP state polling by 86 electoral college votes and is 8 points higher in aggregate national polling than he was in 2020 isn't worth this much debate.