It’s a fool’s errand to guess which way polling bias will break in any given year, but if you think pollsters haven’t made methodological adjustments to try to avoid underestimating Trump a 3rd time in a row — & avoid a severe hit to their reputation — I have a bridge to sell you
BREAKING — Harris' lead in the RCP Average has dropped to just 0.9. On this day in 2020, Biden was leading by 8.6; on this day in 2016, Hillary was ahead by 6.4.
During the first day of early in-person voting in Nevada, Republicans crushed Democrats by nearly a 2 to 1 margin, including in Clark County (Las Vegas).
ABC NEWS: The early vote shows a 10-point swing towards Republicans in the battleground states of FL, GA, MI, NC, PA, VA, and WI
So the percentage of Democrats doing early voting is still 12% greater than Republicans across all of these states.