The U.S. Presidential Contest, October 16, 2024 Marist National Poll Harris +5 Points Against Trump Nationally https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/the-u-s-presidential-contest-october-16-2024/
Donald Trump Wipes Out Kamala Harris' Lead With College Grads: Poll Published Oct 17, 2024 Former President Donald Trump has drastically reduced Vice President Kamala Harris' lead among college graduates in just a few months, according to a new poll. A Fox News national survey of 1,110 registered voters, conducted October 11-14, reveals Trump has a 50 percent to 48 lead over Harris, a reversal of the September results in which Harris led by the same 2-point margin. The results have a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. When broken down further, the results show that the vice president has a 1-point lead over Trump (49 percent to 48) when those with college degrees are asked how they will vote in November. The results among college graduates have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. Harris had a 12-point lead over Trump among college graduates in a previous Fox News poll in September (55 percent to 43) and a 14-point lead in an August survey (56 percent to 42). The results also show that Trump is ahead of Harris among white voters with college degrees (51 percent to 46), having been 12 points behind the vice president in September. In the 2020 election, Biden beat Trump among college graduates 55 percent to 43, according to a CNN exit poll. In 2016, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton beat Trump by 10 points among college graduates.
Tim Walz Was Expected to Shore Up Minnesota. Trump is Gaining on Harris Published Oct 17, 2024 When Vice President Kamala Harris picked Minnesota Governor Tim Walz to be her running mate in August, her aim was to shore up support in the Midwestern states that give her the clearest path to an Electoral College victory in November. While the battleground states are set to be extremely close, polling shows that former President Donald Trump has gained some ground in Walz's home state in recent weeks. Harris had been ahead of former president Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, by 8.4 percentage points on August 19, but her lead shrunk to 5.8 points on Monday, according to FiveThirty Eight's average of polls. It comes as Walz has faced criticism over a string of gaffes, including recently having to walk back his comment that the Electoral College system "needs to go," which is not the Harris campaign's position. He later told ABC, "My position is the campaign's position." Walz has also misleadingly claimed he was in Hong Kong during the turbulence surrounding the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre. When pressed about the comment during the recent vice presidential debate, Walz said he "misspoke." He has also made statements that misrepresented the type of infertility treatment his family received and provided misleading information about his rank in the National Guard. And his drunken driving arrest from 1995 in Nebraska has also gotten renewed scrutiny. Harris' choosing the Minnesota governor as her running mate appears to have done little to boost support in the state, according to polling conducted before and after she announced Walz as her pick. Polls conducted soon after Harris entered the presidential race in July had her leading Trump in a two-way race in Minnesota by between 6 and 10 points. But polls conducted after Harris announced Walz as her running mate on August 6 showed the race tightening somewhat—with those conducted in the past month showing Harris leading by between 5 and 7 points in a two-way matchup with Trump, but the margins of error range from 3.5 to 4.9 percent. For example, a SurveyUSA conducted among 646 likely voters between September 23 and 26 gave Harris a 6-point lead, while a July survey conducted among a similar number of likely voters had put her 10 points ahead of Trump. Harris' 6-point lead comes with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percent.