Polling 2024

Discussion in 'Politics' started by poopy, Jul 28, 2024.

2024 Election Outcome

Poll closed Nov 5, 2024.
  1. Trump Loses

    46.2%
  2. Harris Wins

    69.2%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    Actually RCP includes the polls including Rasmussen and these other biased polling firms. 538 does not include Rasmussen and many of these biased polling firms -- many of these firms refuse to divulge their methods and standards in regards to polling.
     
    #511     Oct 15, 2024

  2. Also,Democrats say Harris is doing poorly in internal polling,like Obama admitting Harris is doing poorly with Black voters and the Michigan Senate nominee saying Harris is down in her internal polling.
     
    #512     Oct 15, 2024

  3. Rasmussen brings balance to the left wing polls,thats why they do better than 538.
     
    #513     Oct 15, 2024
  4. Businessman

    Businessman

    JUST IN: Nate Silver Releases New Model Showing Massive Shift In Race Towards Trump


     
    #514     Oct 15, 2024



  5. Will the KKK vote for Stein instead of Trump ? Will Trump blame the Klan for his loss?
     
    #515     Oct 15, 2024
  6. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    It's not just a claim on social media but news story which can be found on multiple respected mainstream news outlets.

    Now will the KKK endorsement drive progressives and Muslims away from voting for Jill Stein. Now that it is clear that her campaign is funded by right-wing extremists and endorsed by hate organizations like the KKK.


    Former KKK leader David Duke endorses Jill Stein
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/20...al-election-live-updates-rcna175178#rcrd60274

    Former Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke endorsed Green Party nominee Jill Stein over Trump this week, citing their stances on Israel — but Stein's campaign says it wants nothing to do with Duke, the former American Nazi Party member.

    Duke, a proudly antisemitic white supremacist, endorsed Trump in 2016 and 2020, but on his radio show yesterday, he slammed Trump's "subservience to Israel and to the Jewish lobby" and said only Stein would stand up to Israel and its "genocide" against Palestinians.

    "I endorse for president of the United States Green Party candidate, Dr. Jill Stein," Duke said. "Although Dr. Stein and I obviously have our differences on important issues, she’s the only candidate who speaks clearly against the war in the Middle East."

    Duke acknowledged that his endorsement of a far-left candidate — who, ironically, is Jewish — would "shock" even his supporters. But he said he put significant thought into "what’s good for white people, Europeans," and said his backing of Stein is "one of the most important statements that I have ever made politically."

    Duke suggested that Trump, who has shown steadfast support for Israel, is now a puppet of what he baselessly alleges to be a vast global Jewish conspiracy that he called "the greatest threat to us and to all mankind."

    Trump stumbled in 2016 when he seemed reluctant to immediately disown Duke's endorsement.

    Stein’s campaign manager, Jason Call, disavowed the endorsement and called Duke "trash."

    "We had no idea about this and are very, very not interested in David Duke's endorsement," Call told NBC News.
     
    #516     Oct 15, 2024
  7. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    GOP's internal polling shows that Trump is going to lose.

    GOP Internal Poll Showing Donald Trump Struggling Leaves Pollsters Stunned
    https://www.newsweek.com/gop-intern...p-struggling-leaves-pollsters-stunned-1968589

    Pollsters and analysts were left stunned after an internal polling memo circulated by the Senate Leadership Fund, a Republican super PAC, showed former President Donald Trump struggling in key battleground states.

    The memo, dated October 8 and obtained by Politico, included polling where Trump trailed Vice President Kamala Harris by 3 points in Michigan and by 1 point in Pennsylvania. The candidates were tied in Nevada and Arizona, while Trump led in Wisconsin by 1 point.

    The SLF is a political action committee that fundraises and campaigns to help the Republican Party regain majority control of the U.S. Senate. Its president, Steven Law, is the former chief of staff for Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

    As a super PAC, the SLF can fundraise unlimited amounts from individuals and corporations, but it cannot coordinate or contribute directly to candidate campaigns or political parties.

    GOP-internal-polling.jpg

    Political analyst Lakshya Jain, commenting on the memo on X, formerly Twitter, expressed disbelief at the state of the Republican polling data.

    "I think that's the worst set of polls I've seen a party release since Democrats went all hands on deck to get Biden out of the race," he wrote.

    Pollster Mark Mitchell of Rasmussen Reports dismissed the polling, which showed Trump narrowly leading Harris.

    "There's no way," Mitchell wrote on X, "absolutely no way a Trump internal poll had him close in OH."

    Jain pointed out that the polling came from the SLF, not Trump's team.

    Newsweek has contacted the Senate Leadership Fund and the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment.

    The memo, penned by Law, found that some GOP Senate candidates were trailing their Democratic opponents in competitive races.

    In Pennsylvania, the polling showed Republican Senate candidate Dave McCormick trailing Democratic Senator Bob Casey by 2 points, 46 percent to 48 percent. Trump was likewise narrowly trailing Harris in the Keystone State, 48 percent to 49 percent.

    The gap between McCormick and Trump could hinder McCormick's chances of unseating Casey, with the SLF memo noting that McCormick needed to close the gap with Trump voters.

    "McCormick still needs to close the gap with Trump on the ballot, and Trump needs to win," Law wrote.

    While the SLF was optimistic about states such as Montana, where GOP candidate Tim Sheehy led Democratic Senator Jon Tester, the outlook in other battlegrounds was more concerning.

    In Michigan, the memo showed Democratic Representative Elissa Slotkin widening her lead over Republican Mike Rogers, who had dropped significantly in favorability ratings since August. Slotkin now led 46 percent to 38 percent.

    Perhaps the most surprising result in the memo came from traditionally red states. Texas, a GOP stronghold, showed signs of trouble, as Republican Senator Ted Cruz led his Democratic challenger, Representative Colin Allred, by 1 point—48 percent to 47 percent.

    The memo attributed Cruz's vulnerability to Allred's significant spending advantage and his rising favorability, adding to concerns about maintaining control in the Lone Star State.

    (More at above url including Senate races)
     
    #517     Oct 15, 2024
  8. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    #518     Oct 15, 2024
  9. Businessman

    Businessman

    Pennsylvania Republicans just posted their best mail-in ballot update yet.

    Democrats have now dropped BELOW 60% of mail-in requests, while Republicans are nearing 29% - that's D+31.

    On this day in 2020, mail was *D+41.*

    That's now a GOP+10 swing.
     
    #519     Oct 15, 2024
  10. Betting markets are at their best now because they can factor in early voting.So far the market isn't impressed with Harris's early voting numbers (or Democrats attempts to make them look good). Trump up nearly 20 points now.

    upload_2024-10-16_9-6-26.png
     
    #520     Oct 16, 2024