Kamala Harris stands as the slight betting favorite over Donald Trump to win the White House, USA Today reports. “The action, which U.S. bookmakers cannot take part in legally, has taken a definitive swing towards the vice president in the three weeks she has led the campaign. The movement accelerated as she barnstormed swing states with running mate and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.”
North Carolina is in play. Kamala Harris Ties Donald Trump in State He Won in 2016 and 2020: Poll https://www.newsweek.com/north-carolina-kamala-harris-donald-trump-polling-numbers-1937593 Vice President Kamala Harris has pulled even with former President Donald Trump in North Carolina, a state he carried in both 2016 and 2020, according to a new poll released on Sunday. The YouGov Blue survey, conducted on behalf of Carolina Forward, shows Harris and Trump deadlocked at 46 percent each among likely voters in the Tar Heel State. The poll, which sampled 802 voters online from August 5 to August 9 has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. This latest poll result represents a significant shift in a state that has been reliably Republican in recent presidential elections. Trump, the GOP's presidential nominee, won North Carolina by 3.6 percentage points in 2016 against former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and by a narrower 1.3-point margin in 2020 against President Joe Biden. The state's 16 electoral votes, up from 15 after the 2020 Census, make it a crucial battleground amid this year's election. The survey comes as Harris, the presumptive Democratic nominee, ramps up her campaign after entering the race following Biden's withdrawal on July 21. While Trump and Harris are tied among decided voters, they survey shows that 4 percent of respondents remain undecided, with an additional 1 percent undecided among third-party options. This leaves a small, but potentially crucial bloc of voters up for grabs in what could be one of 2024's most hotly contested states. Newsweek has contacted Harris' campaign as well Trump's spokesperson via email on Saturday for comment. Third-party candidates appear to be making minimal impact in North Carolina thus far. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. garnered 2 percent support, while other candidates like Cornel West, Jill Stein, and Chase Oliver registered negligible support. This low third-party support contrasts with the 2016 election, where Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson received 2.74 percent of the vote in North Carolina. North Carolina's political landscape has been evolving over the past few decades. The state voted almost exclusively Democratic from 1876 through 1964 before shifting to a Republican stronghold beginning in 1968. This shift was part of the broader "Southern Strategy" employed by the Republican Party, which appealed to white conservative voters in the South who were uncomfortable with the civil rights legislation passed in the mid-1960s. The state briefly went blue in 2008 when former President Barack Obama carried it by a razor-thin margin of about 14,000 votes out of 4.3 million cast (49.7 to 49.4 percent). This was the second closest race of the 2008 election, behind only Missouri. However, North Carolina flipped back to the GOP in 2012, with Mitt Romney defeating Obama by about 2 percent. Part of what makes the state a notable battleground is that while the state has regularly gone red for presidential elections, it has elected a Democratic governor in seven of the last eight gubernatorial contests. North Carolina's rapidly growing urban areas have been trending Democratic in recent years, while rural regions remain deeply Republican. The suburbs, particularly around major cities like Charlotte, Raleigh, and Durham, could play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the 2024 election in the state. The tie in the current poll reflects the state's position as a true battleground. North Carolina's demographic changes, including an influx of out-of-state residents to its urban areas and a growing minority population, have gradually shifted its political dynamics. However, the poll did not provide detailed demographic breakdowns, leaving questions about which groups are driving the current tie between Harris and Trump in the state. Factors such as the urban-rural divide, education levels, and racial demographics have played significant roles in recent North Carolina elections and will likely be key in 2024 as well. The economy and immigration remain top issues for voters nationwide, and North Carolina is likely no exception. The state's diverse economy, which includes strong banking, technology, and agricultural sectors, means that economic policies could be a decisive factor for many voters. What Other Polls Show While this YouGov Blue poll shows a tie between the two, other recent surveys in North Carolina paint a different picture. A Trafalgar Group poll conducted from August 6 to August 8, which surveyed 1,082 likely voters, showed Trump leading with 49 percent to Harris' 45 percent. The margin of error was plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. Similarly, a Cygnal poll from August 4 to August 5 puts Trump ahead at 47 percent compared to Harris' 44 percent. That poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. On the national level, Harris appears to have an edge. According to FiveThirtyEight's poll aggregator, Harris leads with 45.7 percent to Trump's 43.4 percent as of Sunday afternoon.
Is Donald Trump at Risk of Losing Ohio? What Polls Reportedly Show https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-risk-lose-ohio-kamala-harris-polls-1937957
Kamala Harris Takes Nine Point Lead Over Donald Trump in Wisconsin Poll https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-har...-wisconsin-poll-presidential-election-1938361
"Uh oh, the omelette bar chef at Mar-a-Lago is going to be playing dodgeball with a lot of ketchup bottles today." Donald Trump at Risk of Losing Florida, Poll Suggests https://www.newsweek.com/donald-tru...a-presidential-election-kamala-harris-1938497
You know Trump will become desperate as we get nearer to November and ask his MAGA supporters to go to the Capitol again but this time before the November election as a show of "threat" and "intimidation" of what could happen if he loses again in a fair election. Of course, this time around, Trump can not claim immunity because he's no longer the President of the United States...Joe Biden will still be President. Yet, if President Biden calls in the national guard on rioting protestors at the Capital building if Trump loses again...President Biden will be immune from any prosecution regardless to what the national guard does to the protestors because it will be viewed as part of his official duties as President of the United States to protect the integrity of American's vote...thanks to the Supreme Court immunity fiasco. A no-win scenario for Trump...Trump is fucked. #more-chaos wrbtrader
A new Cook Political Report Swing State Project Survey conducted by BSG and GS Strategy Group shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading or tied with former President Donald Trump in all but one of the seven battleground states. Overall, she holds a narrow lead of 48% to 47% in those states in the head-to-head. Harris has closed the gap with Trump since the last Swing State Project survey in May, when Trump led President Joe Biden by three points overall, and was ahead or tied in every one of the seven swing states. The one state where Trump still holds a slim lead is Nevada, though Harris has narrowed Trump’s margin by six points since May.