Polling 2024

Discussion in 'Politics' started by poopy, Jul 28, 2024.

2024 Election Outcome

Poll closed Nov 5, 2024.
  1. Trump Loses

    46.2%
  2. Harris Wins

    69.2%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. poopy

    poopy

  2. #472     Oct 12, 2024
    spy and gwb-trading like this.
  3. poopy

    poopy


    That’s a simplistic view.
     
    #473     Oct 12, 2024
  4. Businessman

    Businessman


    Yep, that being public data is already priced into betting markets, Polymarket has Trump at 54% in PA, so the race in PA is still very close according to betting markets..
     
    #474     Oct 12, 2024
  5. over 7 million votes were cast in 2020 election in PA for Prez.

    Right now just over 400,000 mail in votes were received which is what...half of 1%.

    GOP preaches voting in person so majority of mail in votes are often Dem.

    A sample size of half of 1% of normally skewed Dem.votes is not indicative of much.

    It's not simplistic, it just is...
     
    #475     Oct 13, 2024
  6. spy

    spy

    You better check your division.
     
    #476     Oct 13, 2024
    poopy likes this.
  7. Businessman

    Businessman

    Off by factor of 10, its five percent.

    Regardless, the comparison would be to the early voting in 2020, 3 weeks before the election... Does the difference between now and then favour Dems or Republicans.. Or is it pretty much similar.. Anyone know?
     
    #477     Oct 13, 2024
    insider trading and spy like this.
  8. spy

    spy

    Even then we have to guess covid affected #s in a unique way.
     
    #478     Oct 13, 2024
  9. Closest I could find.

    https://6abc.com/vote-pa-2020-election-mail-in-ballot-voting-pennsylvania/7283354/


    Nearly 1.5 million Pennsylvanians have already cast ballots ahead of election
    By Annie McCormick and Bob Brooks[​IMG]
    Saturday, October 24, 2020


    Voting early is proving more popular with Democrats than Republicans. According to the Department of State, 1,023,402 of the ballots that have been returned came from Democrats, 293,318 came from Republicans, and 132,680 came from other or unaffiliated party registrants, for a total of 1,449,400.
     
    #479     Oct 13, 2024
  10. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    #480     Oct 13, 2024