There is a good chance that both the Senate and House flip in this election MO. The Senate will be a Republican majority and the House will be a Democratic majority.
Unlike Nate the conman Silver RCP doesn't try to give itself wiggle room out of every prediction or opinion.And RCP was much closer in the election they both got wrong.
I think Republicans flip The Senate.The House is a toss up because Harris will bring the party down imo.While some progressives will vote for Stein or West,millions will just stay home and that hurts House Democrats.
https://nypost.com/2024/10/12/us-news/trump-gaining-momentum-with-black-voters-new-poll-says/ Trump gaining momentum with black voters, new poll says By Rich Calder Published Oct. 12, 2024, 1:29 p.m. ET Republican Donald Trump is gaining steam with black voters while Vice President Harris is falling behind with the key group, which was polling at 90% for Democrats four years ago, a new survey shows. The New York Times/Sienna College released Saturday found 78% of likely black voters would support Harris, a slight increase from the 74% who said they’d back President Biden in a head-to-head contest with Trump. But Biden, who dropped out of the 2024 race in July, captured 90% of the demographic when he beat Trump in 2020. The decline in support could hurt Harris’ chances of winning key battleground states in November. Roughly 15% of likely black voters said they planned to vote for Trump, a six-point jump for the former president from 2020. The remaining 7% polled were undecided or refused to give an opinion. Much of the drop in Harris’ support is fueled by a growing feeling that Democrats failed to deliver on earlier promises, with 40% of black voters under 30 saying the GOP is more likely to deliver on campaign commitments, the poll showed. Like other constituencies, black voters are not happy with the economy under the current administration.
With inflation down to 2.2 percent and the economy thriving, possibly even seeing some deflation, Democrats and traditional Republicans need to join forces to address the deep partisan divides in news consumption. Even if they cured cancer, Fox News wouldn't cover it if it helped Harris, and Newsmax would call it a job killer. A solution, whether it's a new Fairness Doctrine or another approach, is necessary to reduce the dominance of pure partisan news. We need a system that ensures people are exposed to a broader range of perspectives in their news diet.
Dems are going to get a rude awakening me thinks. I am not 100% sure if Senate flips but trump will most likely squeeze by in PA or MI and ege out the EC vote. The issue now is when trump wins how long does he last becasue GOP sold out on the too old to be president line and trump in 2 years will be a neurotic mess. Also even my diehard GOP friends know trump won't do anything he promised like ending inflation, end the war in Ukraine, ending the war in Israel and fixing immigration in the first 100 days.....because no one can do that...yet they still put him over party..go figure. They are rich anyway so they just want corporate welfare and lower taxes.