the trend is certainly moving against Harris, and I repeatedly said trump will beat biden going back in many posts. Harris stepping in changed things a bit because the old and feeble argument went away so ti swung some decisions back in polling. But what you are seeing now is different biases creeping in based on the population size of the polled group, the timing of the poll and questions being asked. More importantly is the margin of error in the polling sample size. So when you bang thse factors against each other, the margin of error captures all the volatility in changes and maintains an conclusion of being hard to determine either way. If the poll goes 48-45 and flipd 48-45 the other way it is certainly significant. But most pollls I have seen indicate 3000 people asked...nationally that is pretty poor sample size. Even within a state we are seeing variances within the margins that can be affected by timing. For example, polls taken right after the Presidential debate had different results than the same polls taken 2 weeks after. The shine is off. Polls that show trump 10 points ahead are pretty good indications. These 2-3 point flips within the margin without taking into account independents still vascillating or who answers the poll is why we have the margin to begin with. Anything within 1-2 points is definitely still in toss up category unless the history of the state's voting pattern is taken into account.
Pollster John Della Volpe to Semafor: “I think that many folks underestimated the degree to which younger people were looking for political leaders they could connect with. There’s not a lot of daylight in the policy between Harris and Biden, but there’s just a tremendous amount of confidence in Vice President Harris that you can feel from this data. There’s a genuine enthusiasm for voting among Democrats now.” He added: “And I’ve said, for a decade, that for a Democrat to have a strong chance of winning the Electoral College, you need to be at 60% plus with younger people. It’s going to make the pathway much, much easier. And she’s in the ballpark. She needs to stay there and build.”
Picking past presidential elections is very easy in hindsight.This current election is far easier to pick than 2008 or 2012.Its one of the easiest elections to pick ever.
Bottom Line: This Presidential race is close and could go either way IMO. Trump, Harris locked in dead heat in 7 battleground states, poll finds: 'Could not be closer' https://www.foxnews.com/politics/tr...ttleground-states-poll-finds-could-not-closer A new Wall Street Journal poll has found little separation between former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in seven battleground states, prompting a Democratic pollster to say that the 2024 election "really could not be closer." The survey of 600 registered voters in each of the states, which was conducted Sept. 28-Oct. 8 with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points, found that in a head-to-head contest, Trump and Harris are tied in North Carolina and Wisconsin. Harris leads Trump 48%-46% in Arizona and Georgia, and 49%-47% in Michigan, according to the poll. In Nevada, Trump has his biggest swing state lead of 49%-43%, while he leads Harris in Pennsylvania 47%-46%, the poll also found. "It really could not be closer," Democrat Michael Bocian, one of the pollsters who worked on the survey, told The Wall Street Journal. "It’s an even-steven, tight, tight race." Overall, Trump leads Harris 46%-45%, with 93% of Democrats and Republicans across the seven states indicating their support for their parties’ respective candidates. As for independent voters, 40% said they would vote for Harris, compared to 39% for Trump. On the issues, voters say they trusted Trump more to handle the economy, inflation and immigration and border security. They preferred Harris when it comes to housing affordability, abortion, health care and having someone in the Oval Office who cares about you. The poll found that 47% of voters believe Trump will stand up better for the American worker, compared to 45% for Harris, and that nearly two-thirds believe the national economy is poor or not so good. Overall, Trump leads Harris 46%-45%, with 93% of Democrats and Republicans across the seven states indicating their support for their parties’ respective candidates. As for independent voters, 40% said they would vote for Harris, compared to 39% for Trump. On the issues, voters say they trusted Trump more to handle the economy, inflation and immigration and border security. They preferred Harris when it comes to housing affordability, abortion, health care and having someone in the Oval Office who cares about you. The poll found that 47% of voters believe Trump will stand up better for the American worker, compared to 45% for Harris, and that nearly two-thirds believe the national economy is poor or not so good. "Now the third-party support has evaporated almost completely, and the race is tied in all the states," he said.
RCP gave Hillary Clinton a 50.55 % chance of winning 2016. Nate Silver gave Hillary Clinton a 71 % chance of winning 2016. RCP had Hillary Clinton winning the popular by 3.2 points. Nate Silver had Hillary Clinton winning the popular by 3.6 points. RCP had Donald Trump getting 266 electoral votes. Nate Silver had Donald Trump getting 235 electoral votes. In all 3 instances RCP was closer to the final result than Nate Silver. You are very good at recognizing and calling out right wing con artists but left wing con artists like Nate Silver cons you with ease.
Wrong Sir,that was not NOT BEFORE the Comey letter,that was both their final election day analysis.Even after The Comey letter Nate the conman Silver had Hillary with a 71% chance of winning,winning the popular vote and winning 302 electoral. No,I have not read Nate Silver's analysis on it.I know his above final prediction after his analysis.Nate being the con man that he is I am in no way surprised his final prediction would be Clinton 71% and 302 electoral votes while trying to hedge saying the Comey letter could cause her to lose.He argues both sides regularly than claims he was right.
Nov 6th https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/nate-silver-predicts-close-2016-presidential-race/story?id=43329272