Polling 2024

Discussion in 'Politics' started by poopy, Jul 28, 2024.

2024 Election Outcome

Poll closed Nov 5, 2024.
  1. Trump Loses

    46.2%
  2. Harris Wins

    69.2%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    The New York Times had a good in-depth article discussing the sharp right turn of RCP during the Trump era and a look at their major donors.

    In regards to polling accuracy, we can start with RCP's 2022 final projections for the U.S. Senate, and the RCP 2022 Governor projections.

    However it is best to look at RCP's 2022 Pennsylvania Senate race information in detail to get a sense of the issues with RCP aggregation.

    The polling website where Republicans are winning in a landslide | #206 - October 9, 2022
    A math and history lesson on why "unskewing" the polls is so hard
    https://gelliottmorris.substack.com/p/the-polling-website-where-republicans
     
    #411     Oct 11, 2024

  2. After such a detailed response you really showed me..... and everyone ese here you are just good at cut and paste
     
    #412     Oct 11, 2024
  3. 48.2 to 48 is something you find reliable?
     
    #413     Oct 11, 2024

  4. Their articles /writers etc yes,not their polling models which often has Republicans polling lower than left wing polling sites





    upload_2024-10-11_15-14-14.png



    upload_2024-10-11_15-15-3.png
     
    #414     Oct 11, 2024
  5. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    So you are ignoring that their 2022 final projections for the U.S. Senate and Governors are completely off.

    Additionally you have not addressed the issues with their math related to the 2022 Pennsylvania Senate Race -- a in-depth summary was provided.

    The bias of RCP extends well beyond their articles and writers. It is embedded in their polling aggregator. Certainly their Trump supporting financial backers would not support an aggregator that did not lean towards Trump --- which is part of their hard right turn.
     
    #415     Oct 11, 2024
  6. Im not making Senate and Governor predictions,they are much harder to predict than presidential races.

    BTW,538 got PA wrong too.RCP was closer to the final outcome than 538.



    upload_2024-10-11_15-31-49.png

    upload_2024-10-11_15-31-10.png
     
    #416     Oct 11, 2024
  7. Democrat internal polling must be showing Harris is doing very bad with Black men.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/10/obama-harris-rally-pittsburgh/



    Obama admonishes Black men for hesitancy in supporting Harris

    Former president suggests some in the Black community are uncomfortable voting for a woman and are coming up with excuses.



    PITTSBURGH — Former president Barack Obama on Thursday made a direct, impassioned plea to Black men to support Vice President Kamala Harris — a key demographic she is struggling to mobilize — admonishing them for thinking about sitting out the presidential contest as well as suggesting sexism might be at play.
     
    #417     Oct 11, 2024
    wildchild likes this.
  8. Democrats will try to put the blame on everything except where it belongs.Biden's numbers with Black voters dropped massively through his presidency.It should be no surprise that her numbers with Black voters would be low too considering she is his VP who supports everything he did and is running as a 2nd Biden term.
     
    #418     Oct 11, 2024

  9. I thought Wisconsin would flip first but it will soon.
     
    #419     Oct 11, 2024


  10. “My understanding, based on reports I’m getting from campaigns and communities, is that we have not yet seen the same kinds of energy and turnout in all quarters of our neighborhoods and communities as we saw when I was running,” Obama said, adding that it “seems to be more pronounced with the brothers.”

    Obama questioned how voters, and Black voters specifically, could be on the fence about whether to support Harris or former president Donald Trump, the Republican nominee.
     
    #420     Oct 11, 2024