Their record is 4-1 in picking the electoral college winner.The only one they got wrong was 2016 when they had Clinton ahead by only 6 electoral college votes.
They have a far better record if being closer to the final outcome than 538. In 2020 RCP had Biden + 4 in Michigan.538 had Biden +8 in Michigan.Biden won Michigan by +3. 538 having Biden + 8 in Michigan and + 8.4 nationwide in 2020 is laughable.
4-1 means they will move to 5-1 or 4-2.... These predictions are independent events. For example a mentally challenged child could have picked Obama over Romney and Obama over McCain once he chose Pailin. So they do not support a theory that these estimations have unique accuracy or a reliable model. For example if my model in sports betting is mainly used when the worst team plays the best team in the league and I am right 99 out of 100 times, I do not have an accurate model to predict sports outcomes. The only prediction they got wrong was in the closest election with polls all over the place. Which is where the model fails because it is just a guess. Therefore these polls are no more reliable to predict 2024 than a coin toss at this moment....but since most people, including you, have no understanding of statistics, it is easy to make this mistake.
i think it will depend on how polling models have changed since since 2020 and 2016. Clearly Democrat +1 means something different today than in 2016 but its unclear how much. Personally, i think the polling models bias heavy to trump. I don't think he has the same enthusiasm behind him as before: no red wave in 2022, rallies are smaller and poorly attended, more old school republicans are stepping away from him.
You Sir are the one with no understanding of any of this. And RCP will be 5-1 in less than a month from now.