A new Economist/YouGov poll finds Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump nationally in a multi-candidate field, 45% to 43%.
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “As Harris has performed better against Donald Trump in the Sun Belt than Biden, we are moving Georgia back into the Toss-up category.” “These changes mean that all of the electoral votes that Trump carried in 2020 continue to at least lean to him, although we do wonder if North Carolina may become a true Toss-up if Harris’s upward trajectory continues. All of the electoral votes in places where Biden did better than his 4.5-point national popular margin at least lean to Harris. The 6 states that Biden won by smaller margins than his national margin are Toss-ups.”
Data for Progress polled Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin a month ago and again last week. The first poll was just before Joe Biden dropped his re-election bid and Donald Trump led Kamala Harris in these battleground states by 7 percentage points (and Biden by 6 percentage points). The second poll last week found Harris now leads Trump by 1 percentage point. Key takeaway: “Overall, the results suggest that Democrats have a chance to reclaim the narrative going into the final months of the election campaign. Harris has made important improvements in terms of her favorability ratings and has a narrow lead over Trump in the Rust Belt collectively. The presidential race once again appears to be a true tossup.”
Someone needs to go into Trump's room and clean up the ketchup. Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Widens Lead—Up 5 Points In Latest Survey https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarado...ris-widens-lead-up-5-points-in-latest-survey/ Topline Polls continue to show Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump since becoming the official Democratic presidential nominee—with the latest Reuters/Ipsos survey showing Harris up by five points. Key Facts A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Thursday found Harris leads 42% to 37% when voters are allowed to say they don’t know who they’ll vote for, a shift from Harris’ 37%-34% lead in late July—but the lead shifts to just 49%-47% in Harris’ favor when voters who are unsure are pressured to answer. A YouGov/Economist survey released Wednesday also found Harris is up two points, 45% to 43%, with third-party candidates, including independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., on the ballot (voters were also given the option to chose other, say they wouldn’t vote or weren’t sure). Harris built a three-point lead over Trump in a NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released Tuesday, polling 48% to 45% over Trump, though with a margin of error of 3.3 points, Trump remains in striking distance, while independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. falls well behind at 5%. The vice president leads Trump 48% to 44% in Morning Consult’s latest poll released Monday, with 5% of registered voters surveyed selecting “someone else” and 4% saying they don’t know—the third week in a row Morning Consult’s weekly poll has shown Trump trailing Harris. Harris also leads Trump by one point nationally in a CBS News poll released Sunday, in part because younger and Black voters said they’re more likely to vote and women indicated they believe Harris would favor their interests more (margin of error 2.1 points). The CBS News poll—which was conducted July 30 through Aug. 2—also found Trump and Harris are locked in a tie among voters across the seven top battleground states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada). Trump leads Harris in at least eight other polls since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race, but most show her denting Trump’s lead over Biden and her approval rating ticking up since she announced her candidacy. Trump led Harris by one point (48% to 47%) in a New York Times/Siena poll conducted July 22-24, two points (49% to 47%) in a July 23-25 Wall Street Journal poll and by two points (47% to 45%) in a HarrisX/Forbes online survey released June 26. Big Number 0.5. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by in RealClearPolitics’ latest polling average. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average shows Harris with a two-point lead. Surprising Fact The New York Times/Siena poll found voters are more tuned into the race in the aftermath of the June 27 Biden-Trump debate, which was widely considered disastrous for Biden. Some 64% percent of respondents now say they’re paying a lot of attention to the contest, compared to 48% prior to the debate. How Does Harris Perform Against Trump In Swing States? Harris leads Trump by one point overall in the seven battleground states likely to decide the election: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia, according to a July 24-28 Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll. Harris is ahead in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada; Trump leads in Pennsylvania and North Carolina; and the two are tied in Georgia. Tangent Democrats are far more enthusiastic about Harris than they were about Biden, the Times/Siena survey found, with nearly 80% of voters who lean Democratic saying they would like Harris to be the nominee, compared to 48% of Democrats who said the same about Biden three weeks ago. In a stark contrast with sentiment surrounding Biden’s mental fitness, 56% of voters polled by Reuters/Ipsos said Harris was “mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges,” compared to 49% who said the same about Trump and 22% for Biden. A 19th News/SurveyMonkey poll found 87% of Americans agreed with Biden’s decision to end his campaign, and more Americans think the decision will help the Democratic Party (45%) than the Republican Party (29%). The 19th News survey also showed Americans are split on whether Harris’ gender and race will help or hurt her: 31% think being a woman will help her, compared to 33% who think it will hurt her and 34% who see no impact. Respondents were more optimistic that Harris being Black and Indian American will benefit her, with 32% seeing it as helpful compared to 24% seeing it as harmful—though 41% expected it to have no impact. Contra Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio predicted a “short term” bump in polls for Harris in the coming weeks as her entrance into the race is expected to reenergize Democrats, referring to the anticipated boost as a “Harris Honeymoon,” in a memo released shortly after the Reuters/Ipsos poll was made public.
Harris takes the lead in critical Blue Wall states, new poll finds A majority of likely voters surveyed this week said they would vote for her over Trump and think she is honest, smart and fit to govern. https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/10/harris-trump-times-poll-2024-elections-00173505 Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump in three of the most important states that are key to winning the 2024 election, according to a new New York Times/Siena College poll published Saturday. The poll was conducted between Aug. 5-9 and asked likely voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin about their attitudes toward Harris and Trump. When asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, Harris received 50 percent support to Trump’s 46 percent — a marked improvement compared to President Joe Biden’s performance against Trump in earlier Times polling. When third-party candidates and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are included in the race, Harris remains ahead by 5 percentage points in Michigan, 2 percentage points in Pennsylvania and 6 percentage points in Wisconsin, with a fading Kennedy averaging just 5 percent support. The new poll suggests that Harris has not only narrowed the gap against Trump nationally but is also pulling ahead in the crucial Blue Wall states as she rides a wave of momentum stretching into its third week. The poll was fielded largely in the same time frame that Harris energized crowds in the Midwest on a rapid-fire rally tour with her newly minted running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, whom voters are still getting to know. Meanwhile, Trump and his running mate, Sen. JD Vance from Ohio, are struggling to lock in a consistent and cogent message against their Democratic opponents. The survey found that Harris is benefiting from a rise in popularity among voters in each state, while Trump’s favorability across the three states has seen a slight improvement compared to previous Times/Siena polls. Between Harris’ numbers in Pennsylvania in July — a week before Biden dropped out — and now, the vice president has gained 8 percentage points in the state among independent voters, flipping Trump’s former 6 percentage-point advantage. She’s also narrowing the gap with Trump among white voters in Pennsylvania, garnering 47 percent support to Trump’s 49 percent in the state. The polling in Michigan and Wisconsin also broadly suggests that Harris is drawing more white voters into her column compared to Biden. Across the likely electorate in the three states, Harris has a net-positive favorability rating, with 50 percent holding a “somewhat” or “very” favorable opinion of her, while 53 percent of respondents had a “somewhat unfavorable” or “very unfavorable” view of Trump. Reviews of Harris’ political agenda were split, with 44 percent of likely voters saying Harris is too liberal or progressive, while another 44 percent said she is neither too liberal or progressive nor too moderate. And in the biggest change in fortunes for the Democratic presidential candidate, Harris is not weighed down by the perceived traits that made Biden a deeply unpopular choice for the 2024 ticket. A majority of likely voters think she is honest, smart and fit to govern, as well as capable of bringing about the right kind of change to the country. Trump fares worse on all of those measures, though he is perceived as having a clear vision for the country, with 60 percent of likely voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin saying that sentiment applies to Trump “very” or “somewhat” well. Notably, 47 percent of likely voters surveyed said that Trump would enact changes that would be “very bad” or “somewhat bad” for the country” if elected, compared to 37 percent of likely voters saying the same thing about Harris. Compared to Times polling in May of a Biden-Trump race, a larger share of likely voters trust Harris on the issues related to the economy and abortion over Biden. The poll, which was conducted mostly after Walz was announced as Harris’ running mate, found that 33 percent of likely voters across Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin still have not heard of or do not have an opinion on him. However, he is viewed favorably by 39 percent of likely voters and unfavorably by 28 percent — with significant popularity among 18- to 29-year-old voters — and is at an advantage compared to Vance among independent voters. Democratic candidates in Senate races in each of the three states were also ahead of their Republican opponents, with Sen. Bob Casey up by 14 percentage points in Pennsylvania, Sen. Tammy Baldwin up by 7 percentage points in Wisconsin and Rep. Elissa Slotkin up by 3 percentage points in Michigan. The New York Times/Siena College poll surveyed 1,973 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points when all states are included together.
A new Financial Times/Michigan Ross School of Business poll finds more Americans trust Kamala Harris to handle the economy than Donald Trump, 42% to 41%. Also interesting: “Fully 60% of those surveyed said Harris should either break completely from the president’s economic policies or ‘make major changes’ to his platform.”
Luntz pointed to Harris’ unexpected surge in the polls as a stark contrast to Trump’s declining momentum. “It’s accurate that the change over the last 17 days has been significant,” Luntz said. He continued: “If it’s about issues, Trump is much more likely to be successful. If it’s about attributes, Harris is much more likely to be successful because, quite frankly, people like her more than they like him.” https://www.mediaite.com/tv/his-hea...acks-instead-of-policy-as-harris-leads-polls/