Don forgot not only does Harris have to beat Trump outperforming the polls she also has that problem of no Democrat winning the electoral college without winning the popular vote by at least 4 points since 1976.Belief that Harris will win the popular vote by 4 points is laughable.
Election today is much different than 1976, but you stick to whatever suits your narrative. There aren't any undecided voters left, its all about turning out the base. A new Muhlenberg College poll in Pennsylvania’s 7th congressional district finds Rep. Susan Wild (D) leading Ryan Mackenzie (R), 51% to 45%. In the presidential race, Kamala Harris holds a 50% to 47% lead over Donald Trump in the district that Joe Biden barely won four years ago.
Biden had to win the popular vote by +4.5 in just the last election,and even with that popular vote win he barely won the electoral college. Also Obama had to win the popular vote by +4 and +7 and that was just 2008 and 2012,not 1976.
National polls are not irrelevant when for the past 40 years The Democrat won if they won the popular vote by +4 or more and The Republican won if The Democrat won the popular vote by less than +4.
Worth nothing in a thread dedicated to polling.RCP's electoral college map has gotten 1 electoral college winner wrong since 2004.
The one election RCP got wrong only had Clinton ahead by 6 EC votes. Trump is ahead of Harris by 54 EC votes,and that lead will soon grow as RCP will soon be flipping Wisconsin to Trump.
The electorate is completely different, there is total polarization of voters, there are no undecideds - its all about your base.