ActVote is not very accurate. Go read up on them. Their polling is done on a smartphone app that people have to download. Most of their polls involve under 400 responses. They have no polling history to assess accuracy before this election cycle.
Very informative post and video.Internal polling in PA,WI and MI all show Harris losing.Polls showing WI and MI moving towards Trump but he was always going to win those states.The writing was on the wall when uncommitted got 48,000 in the WI Democrat primary and 100,000 votes in the Democrat MI primary.
Jonathan Last: “To my eyes, this suggests that Trump’s 2016 and 2020 numbers should be substantially similar to his 2024 numbers.” “Which in turn means that the polling on Trump’s vote share today is (a) probably accurate and (b) close to his ceiling pretty much across the board.” “None of this means that Kamala Harris will win. But it does suggest that there won’t be surprises on Election Day in Trump’s column. He’s going to hit the numbers he’s at.” “Does this make you feel any better?” “For me, the answer is yes, because it clarifies what Harris has to do. She’s not fighting a phantom. Her task is to find that extra point or two and turn out her people. That seems more achievable than beating a smoke monster who might magically outperform his polling by +3.”
Nate Silver: “Polling data over the past week or so has been a mixed bag, but with more bright spots for Trump than for Harris if you squint. However, sentiment about the race has shifted in a GOP direction, sometimes to the point of outright panic by Democrats, in a way that isn’t really justified by the polling.” “Versus a week ago, Trump has gained 0.3 points in our national average, 0.9 points in MI, 0.8 points in WI, 0.4 points in NV, 0.3 points in PA, 0.2 points in NC and 0.1 points in AZ. Harris has gained 0.3 points in GA.” “So a slight move in a Trump direction, and the race is on the verge of becoming truly 50/50 rather than virtually 50/50. But this is pretty minor movement and could also just reflect noise.”
If thats the case Harris wins the popular vote by 2 but losses the electoral college with 242 electoral college votes.In reality it will be much worse,she will lose worse than Clinton.