When Harris is polling far lower than Joe Biden(who won the electoral college by 42,000 votes) and lower Hillary Clinton who lost this is not a toss up. When Harris's lead is 2 points but Trump outperformed the polls the last 2 elections this is not a toss up. When Harris's lead is 2 points but a Democrat hasn't won the electoral college without winning the popular vote by at least 4 points since 1976 this is not a toss up. When Jill Stein is polling higher than Kamala Harris with Muslim voters in multiple crucial swing states with significant Muslim populations this is not a toss up. When Harris is not only polling lower than Biden and Clinton in national and state polling but also left wing sub groups like Black voters, Muslim voters,young voters,union voters etc this is not a toss up. Biden won the electoral college by 42,000 votes in 2020,that was a toss up.Biden needed a 7 point RCP lead,8 point 538 lead and 100 vote RCP electoral college polling lead and a 4.5 point popular vote win to do so.Harris is far from Bidens 2020 numbers with less than a month to catch up,this is not a toss up,its over. Democrats knew most Democrat candidates would lose after Biden's disastrous presidency.They did not kick Biden out and put Harris in to win,they kicked Biden out and put Harris in to get her out of the way and not risk damaging a better candidate like Mark Kelly, Newsome, Whitmer etc for a future run.Democrats know they would make black voters very angry if they skipped the black female VP for a white male,so it was best to put her up now when they knew they had little to no chance to win than put her up in 2028 when it would be more favorable to Democrats. The DM model is not unrealistic.Harris is losing in aggregate polling in PA.They put Trump ahead because of how hard it would be for Harris to win if she losses PA.If she losses PA she could win WI,MI and Nevada and still not win.Polling is also massively underestimating Trump in MI,Harris will not win that state.The MI Democrat Senate candidate said Harris is losing in her internal polling and she is right.
You keep ignoring that Hillary was polling much below 50% with a high level of undecideds in 2016. You also ignore that Biden was near 50% and Trump gained the undecideds at the end which didn't change the results. Wonder why you keep ignoring this instead of only focusing on the difference, 50% is what matters.
47-47 with Stein and West getting 2%.As previously stated,a Democrat hasn't won the electoral college without winning the popular vote by at least 4 points since 1976 so if its 47-47 its likely a big loss for Harris.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...ump-latino-voters-nevada-arizona/75530730007/ Harris losing ground with young Latino men, exclusive USA-TODAY polls find Vice President Kamala Harris is losing support among young Latino men, even as she continues to hold a lead over Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump among Latino voters in Arizona and Nevada – two key states that will help determine the 2024 election, according to two exclusive new USA TODAY/Suffolk University polls. More than half – 57% – of Latino voters in Arizona said they plan to vote for or lean toward Harris, while 38% said they lean toward Trump, according to a statewide poll of 500 likely Hispanic voters there. Harris also leads Trump among Latino voters in Nevada, 56% to 40%, the statewide poll of 500 likely Hispanic voters found. Harris’ polling in both states among Latino voters is slightly trailing where Biden was in 2020. Back then, Biden carried Arizona's Latinos by 24 percentage points over Trump, 61% to 37%, according to CNN exit polls of the time. Biden had a 26-point lead against Trump among Latinos in Nevada, 61% to 35%, CNN exit polls of the 2020 election said.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/new-poll-shows-hispanics-backing-southwest-swing-states "So far, Harris is falling short of the 24-26 point advantage that Joe Biden carried with Hispanic voters in Arizona and Nevada in 2020, according to the exit polls from those states," Suffolk University Political Research Center director David Paleologos highlighted. "This Democratic shortfall is largely due to young Hispanic men." In both states, a majority of men under 50 years of age are choosing Trump over Harris. Trump leads Harris 53%-40% among Hispanic men ages 18-34 in Nevada, and tops her 53%-39% among Hispanic men ages 35-49.
This day in History (RCP average) October 7th 2016: Hillary +4.7% October 7th 2020: Biden +9.7% October 7th 2024: Harris +2.4% Trump currently favourite to win in most betting markets.
Even if Trump doesn't overperform the polls as he did in 2016 and 2020 (he will),Harris still losses winning the popular vote by 2.4.
You keep harping on this meaningless 50% but Trump is at 47%,if he outperforms the polls by 3 points like he did in 2020 than he is at 50.