Nominating and electing Joe Biden might be the biggest mistake in Democrats history.While other Democrat nominees have lost presidential races Joe Biden has probably lost millions of lifetime left wing and Democrat voters permanently.
Prez election markets are available at Kalshi. https://kalshi.com/markets/pres/presidential-elections Trump is at $0.50, so if you buy and he wins, you cash out at $1.00, which is double your money. Thus based on your confident rhetoric, you should be buying hand over first. Money walks, monkey crap talks.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/05/...ex.html?iid=cnn_buildContentRecirc_end_recirc Harris retains a polling lead over Trump with union voters and households, but the margin, according to multiple surveys, is smaller than those enjoyed by Joe Biden four years ago and roughly even with Hillary Clinton’s levels in 2016.
Trump overperformed 538 polling by a whopping 3.9 points in 2020.If thats the case now Trump leads Harris by 1.3 points in the popular vote.
I will be placing a bet closer to election date. In 2020 I bet trump would win more than 200 college votes, the payout even on that bet was good so I took it, he was so far behind in the polling. I wasn't interested in betting on the 2016 election, but one of my teenage kids wanted to bet me $50 that Hillary would win because I said I thought trump would beat her. I gave him the bet market odds at the time, which meant if Hillary had won I would have to pay back the $50 + $25. If trump won I kept the $50... Good life lesson for him about betting on sure things..
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13925273/donald-trump-pe.html Donald Trump takes his biggest lead yet in Daily Mail election model as he gains ground over Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania With a month to go until the only poll that matters, former President Donald Trump has roared back into a substantial lead in our election model. A slew of recent surveys has shown him with leads in key battleground states. And when the data are processed through our DailyMail.com/J.L. Partners model it shows the former president winning in 56.7 percent of the simulations. As ever, the road to the White House appears to run through Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral college votes. For weeks it has been in 'tossup' territory. Now the model moves it to 'lean Trump' in what could be a decisive moment in the election race. Lose that state, and Vice President Kamala Harris would struggle to triumph even if she wins Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin. With fewer paths to electoral college victory, Harris wins in only 43.2 percent of the simulations. It means that, overall, Trump moves out to a 13-point lead from just five points earlier in the week.
Daily Mail model? You think Nate Silver isn't good enough but Daily Mail is good enough to quote because the results suit your bias. A Punchbowl News survey finds 72% of senior Capitol Hill staffers predicted that Kamala Harris will win the November presidential election. Most — 77% — of the respondents say the Democratic Party has more momentum than the GOP as Election Day draws nearer. Interestingly, 55% of Republican senior staffers who responded to the survey agreed.
But there are toss up states... PA is neck and neck and in that model the winner of PA wins the election. Do not trust a model that invents an unrealistic condition..which is what most models do. Right now the election is a pure toss up because of states like PA and others.