And when crows are sitting on the telephone line the oil report breaks high but when the cat is under the sofa it breaks low? At least that's what history says. VPs have not had much historical success but recently they have. It's in the realm of a small sample of coin tosses so probably not worth including.
Teddy Roosevelt ran as the candiate for the Progressive Party (Bull Moose Party) in 1912 -- after he had been out of office for 4 years when William Taft was President (elected in 1908). He came in second in the 1912 Presidental race losing to Woodrow Wilson. "Roosevelt won 4.1 million votes (27%), compared to Taft's 3.5 million (23%) and Wilson's gained 6.3 million (42%). Wilson scored a massive landslide in the Electoral College, with 435 electoral votes; Roosevelt won 88, while Taft won 8. Pennsylvania was the only eastern state won by Roosevelt; in the Midwest, he carried Michigan, Minnesota, and South Dakota; in the West, California, and Washington.[263] Roosevelt garnered a higher share of the popular vote than any other third-party presidential candidate in history and won the most states of any third-party candidate after the Civil War." This means that the record when a former President was a nominee is 1-1.
Trump is not the nominee of the Libertarian,Green,Constitutional or other fringe party etc.He and Cleveland are/were the nominees of one of the two major party's. This means that the record when a former President was a nominee of a major party the record is 1-0 If Trump was the nominee of a 3rd party I would say he had no chance. And of course you knew I was referring to a major party nomination.
So we should narrow our constraints to the parties that came in first and second in the Presidential election. Teddy Roosevelt came in second -- at this point his party is a major party. There needs to be a recognization that they Democratic and Republican parties did not exist for all of our history. There were plenty of other major parties back in time. Coupled with the reality that the Republicans and Democrats of today are very different than the Republicans and Democrats of 1900. Back then the Republicans were the progressive party and the Democrats were the conservatives.
If Trump ran on the Libertarian or Constitutional party ticket he would likely get more votes than the Republican nominee but the Libertarian or Constitutional party would not replace the Republican Party just as the Bull Moose Party did not replace the Republican Party.There have been other party's but no party has won the presidency other than the Republican or Democrat Party since 1868.
Yep---and remember,the only poll that matters going forward is this one which is Gallup's September favorability poll which indicates the popular vote winner every time. Democrats cannot win The Electoral College if they don't win the popular vote. However Dems can also lose The Electoral College if they win the popular vote. As can be seen here, Trump is on track to win the popular vote.
I would agree.I think Trump is going to over perform the polls more in 2024 than he did in 2016 and 2020.Democrats are oblivious to how hated they are right now but they will see it on election night.