I have paid attention to the point,it has no merit.If Harris is going to win she will have to do so the same way every Democrat has since 1992,by winning the popular vote by 4 points.Being 49% in polls that regularly overestimates Democrats mean nothing. Trump can win being unpopular,Democrats can't.Trump has easily won 2 GOP primaries and the presidency and came within 42,000 votes of winning a 2nd term. Harris couldn't compete in a Democrat primary and is polling lower than Hillary Clinton,Joe Biden and Barack Obama.Democrats have had to be popular enough to win the popular vote by 4 points since 1992 while republicans can lose it by 2-3 points and still win.
Nate Silver says its a very important factor so unless you are at the same level, your point on merit not taken.
Nate Silver lost all credibility long ago.He wont even make a prediction.One week he has Trump + 20 and Harris + 20 the next.He just lives for attention these days with his most recent stunt for attention starting a Twitter fight with Allan Lichtman,who at least is man enough to make a prediction.
He does not as he doesn't make actual predictions,just his opinions of the odds that fluctuate,sometimes wildly like going from Trump +20 to Harris + 10 in less than a month.
Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
Trump + 20 to Harris + 10 in less than a month,give me a break. September 5th September 30th https://www.newsweek.com/nate-silver-latest-projection-shows-key-swing-state-shifts-1961694 Silver noted in Monday's edition of the Silver Bulletin that the gap is a sign that the Electoral College "is still a big net disadvantage for Democrats." Nevertheless, Silver's model still favors Harris to win the necessary 270 electoral votes in November, giving her a 55.1 percent chance of victory this fall. In comparison, as of Monday, Trump was given a 44.7 percent chance of winning a second term in the White House.
Yes, this Presidential election is very close and either party can win it. It comes down to a small number of battleground states which will send one candidate or the other to the White House in January. I find the numbers in the individual battleground states are more important than the national polling. I don't necessarily buy-in to the idea that Harris needs more than a 4% lead nationally in order to have a chance to win in November; the focus should be on swing state polling.