Polling 2024

Discussion in 'Politics' started by poopy, Jul 28, 2024.

2024 Election Outcome

Poll closed Nov 5, 2024.
  1. Trump Loses

    46.2%
  2. Harris Wins

    69.2%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. Democrats already starting to blame progressives for Harris's soon to be lost rather than placing the blame where it belongs.

     
    #291     Oct 1, 2024
  2. Mercor

    Mercor

    They need to protect Kamala for 2028
     
    #292     Oct 1, 2024

  3. My first thought to that is they can't be that stupid,but when Biden stepped down and Harris's name was first floated as his replacement my first thought was also they can't be that stupid.
     
    #293     Oct 1, 2024

  4. The thresholds that are important are the same ones that was needed for Joe Biden,+4 in the popular vote,limiting Stein and West to the Green Party's 2020 vote share, around 90% of the black vote,at least 60% black voter turnout and + 7 in RCP or +8 in 538 aggregate polling.Harris will not reach any of those thresholds.With the number of Arabs that wont be voting democrat in MI,WI and AZ even those thresholds probably wont be enough.
     
    Last edited: Oct 1, 2024
    #294     Oct 1, 2024
  5. exGOPer

    exGOPer

    Hillary had thresholds of +4 when she had 47% support vs 43% for Trump - that didn't help in the end when the undecideds broke towards Trump late in the election. This is why 50% support is important, not some arbitrary +4 or +5.
     
    #295     Oct 1, 2024
  6. + 4 isn't arbitrary,its the minimum number the last 3 Democrats who won the presidency won by (Obama +7 in 2008,Obama + 4 in 2012 and Biden +4 in 2020) and its the number that Harris will also very likely need to beat the Electoral College,we know from Hillary + 2 likely wont be enough.

    Good luck with Harris winning by 4. With her small + 2 lead, Trumps history of outperforming the polls and West and Stein she might not win the popular vote period.
     
    Last edited: Oct 1, 2024
    #296     Oct 1, 2024

  7. Stein getting 1% also didn't help.Stein and West will pull more than 1% this election.Democrats are going to be shocked at how many 2020 Biden voters vote for Stein and West this election.
     
    Last edited: Oct 1, 2024
    #297     Oct 1, 2024
  8. exGOPer

    exGOPer

    When you are at or above 50%, it matters much less then when you are at 46%.
     
    #298     Oct 1, 2024

  9. The last time a Democrat won the presidency without winning the popular vote by at least 4 points was 1976,good luck with someone as unpopular as Harris who couldnt win a Democrat primary following a president as unpopular as Biden who was certain to lose breaking that trend.
     
    #299     Oct 1, 2024
  10. exGOPer

    exGOPer

    You keep repeating the same thing without paying attention to the point about 50% support.

    Harris is unpopular? Have you seen favorability ratings? If Harris is unpopular, what do you call Trump?
     
    #300     Oct 2, 2024