Polling 2024

Discussion in 'Politics' started by poopy, Jul 28, 2024.

2024 Election Outcome

Poll closed Nov 5, 2024.
  1. Trump Loses

    46.2%
  2. Harris Wins

    69.2%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. #251     Sep 30, 2024
  2. RCP has PA red.

    upload_2024-9-30_23-12-3.png
     
    #252     Sep 30, 2024
  3. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    because of latest Rasmussen poll which is heavily biased.
     
    #253     Sep 30, 2024
  4. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    only issue is how much are polls handicapping trump effect. If they are overly biasing to trump to avoid systemic errors in the past that might explain Kamala lead in betting markets
     
    #254     Sep 30, 2024

  5. It helps even out heavily biased left wing polls imo.Due to left wing polls RCP and 538 had Biden +7.2 and +8.4 in 2020 and he won by 4.5.
     
    Last edited: Sep 30, 2024
    #255     Sep 30, 2024
  6. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    True. Polling is a complex "art" -- especially the analysis of data in a manner to avoid the introduction of systemic errors and overt biasing in results.

    I believe one of the biggest problems with polling -- beyond small sample sizes -- is the self-selection bias. Usually only people who are partisan one direction or the other are likely to participate in a poll. People who are undecided or rarely follow political elections are unlikely to participate in a poll. When these fence sitters show up on election day -- usually not tracked well by polls -- then the result can go in any direction.
     
    #256     Sep 30, 2024

  7. The left harps on biased right wing polls but ignore biased left wing polls that caused Trump to outperform the polls in 2020 and 2016. Some left wing polls had Clinton and Biden up 7-15 points.
     
    Last edited: Sep 30, 2024
    #257     Sep 30, 2024
  8. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    Rcp biases out left wing biased data but not right wing. Under betting odds they removed predictit a few weeks ago with no explanation. Predictit was Kamala leaning while others that were trump leaning stayed.
     
    #258     Oct 1, 2024
  9. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    especially now that there aren’t landlines which is what made 2016 so bad.
     
    #259     Oct 1, 2024

  10. RCP was closer to the final result than 538 in both 2016 and 2020,popular and electoral vote.
     
    Last edited: Oct 1, 2024
    #260     Oct 1, 2024