Polling 2024

And this comes from what source? Provide a link.

 

Link to the Democrat polling?

Politicos saying they are behind to raise more money is the oldest tactic in the book.

 

As outlined previously - Atlas Intel is not "the most accurate polling". Far from it. They are self-declaring themselves to be the most accurate polls -- which is laughable.

 

The numbers are so bad the Dems don't release them, someone leaked that video of Elissa Slotkin admitting how bad the numbers are in Michigan, LOL. It wasn't supposed to be made public.

 

Nate silver says they are. And it’s moved his model significantly.

 

How does a single poll move a model consisting of hundreds of polls significantly?

 

because he considers them to be reliable. His own tweet

 

You realize that 538 no longer is connected to Matt Silver. He left in April of 2023.

G. Elliott Morris took Silver's place in running 538 at ABC.

And let me ask -- where is Silver's tweet. Obviously Silver would not state that a single poll from Atlas Intel heavily outweighs over polls to move a model significantly; it may have moved the model slightly being a recent poll from a qualified source -- especially if it targeted a single state rather than national polls.

Silver's statement may indicate that Atlas Intel is reliable; unlike Rasmussen and Trafalgar they were not removed from modeling. His statement may have stated that the model had moved after a recent Atlas Intel poll was added to it -- but it is doubtful Silver would state that a single poll moved a model significantly. This type of statement would undermine his entire credibility and all of his previous poll modeling work.

 

I am aware that Nate silver left 538.
I misread the tweet. he said that the poll is reliable but it was already neck and neck. He was 60/40 Kamala like a week ago

 

I will agree that Atlas Intel is deemed to be reliable by 538 and other poll aggregators -- hence it is included in their summaries. The races in nearly all the battleground states are neck to neck with the polls within the margins of error. The national polls show Harris with a several point lead which does not mean much. This election still can go either way -- it is effectively 50-50. The projections will swing around this mid-point a bit on the odds of winning but probably always within a 60-40 band unless some significant event occurs before the election bringing major change to the projections.