Polling 2024

Discussion in 'Politics' started by poopy, Jul 28, 2024.

2024 Election Outcome

Poll closed Nov 5, 2024.
  1. Trump Loses

    46.2%
  2. Harris Wins

    69.2%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. exGOPer

    exGOPer

    Pollsters: Don’t be so sure Trump will outperform our surveys
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4904402-trump-polls-accuracy-questioned/
     
    #231     Sep 30, 2024
  2. They said they fixed the polls for 2020,and Trump outperformed them more than he did 2016.


    https://katu.com/news/local/changes...g-more-accurate-in-2020-political-experts-say

    Changes are underway to make polling more accurate in 2020, political experts say
    by Megan Allison, KATU Staff

    Fri, October 9th 2020 at 9:37 PM
    Updated Sat, October 10th 2020 at 11:40 PM
     
    #232     Sep 30, 2024
  3. #233     Sep 30, 2024
  4. exGOPer

    exGOPer

    And they were, Biden was projected to hit 50% in many swing states and he got there because even with undecideds breaking towards Trump late, it didn't help in the end. That's the crucial point you keep ignoring, the 50% threshold.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Pennsylvania
     
    #234     Sep 30, 2024
  5. exGOPer

    exGOPer

    Look at swing state polling and the 50% threshold, you keep ignoring this.
     
    #235     Sep 30, 2024
  6. Businessman

    Businessman

    Atlas Intel was the most accurate pollster in 2020 and 2022:

    Swing States Polling by @atlas_intel

    PENNSYLVANIA
    Trump: 51% (+2.9)
    Harris: 48.1%

    WISCONSIN
    Trump: 49.7% (+1.5)
    Harris: 48.2%

    MICHIGAN
    Trump: 50.6% (+3.4)
    Harris: 47.2%

    GEORGIA
    Trump: 49.6% (+0.6)
    Harris: 49%

    ARIZONA
    Trump: 49.8% (+1.2)
    Harris: 48.6%

    NEVADA
    Harris: 50.5% (+2.8)
    Trump: 47.7%

    NORTH CAROLINA
    Harris: 50.5% (+2.4)
    Trump: 48.1%

    The most accurate pollster nationally in the United States in the last two election cycles has been Atlas Intel. In 2020 the public opinion research firm overestimated Biden by 0.2 points. In 2022 they overestimated the GOP by 0.3 points in the generic Congressional ballot. Impressively, in both cycles, they got the final results within a few tenths of a point.

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Sep 30, 2024
    #236     Sep 30, 2024
  7. exGOPer

    exGOPer

    Why comparing state polls to national polls? How were their state polls in 2020?
     
    #237     Sep 30, 2024
  8. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading


    LOL - the self-declared "most accurate pollster nationally in the United States".

    Yeah, of course, the ratings at 538, etc. demonstrate differently.

    Even more laughable -- they include Rasmussen and Trafalgar in their comparison -- who Atlas Intel deems to be fairly accurate -- barely behind them in the chart.

    This is your reminder that Rasmussen and Trafalgar are so biased and inaccurate that they were booted from being including in the 538 aggregate polling summary.
     
    Last edited: Sep 30, 2024
    #238     Sep 30, 2024
  9. Businessman

    Businessman

    The latest Atlas Intel poll is absolutely consistent with Internal Democrat polling for Michigan which leaked out the other day:

    Democrat Elissa Slotkin: "I'm not feeling my best right now about where we are in Kamala Harris in a place like Michigan. We have her under water in our polling.

    MICHIGAN
    Trump: 50.6% (+3.4)
    Harris: 47.2%

     
    Last edited: Sep 30, 2024
    #239     Sep 30, 2024
  10. Mercor

    Mercor

    upload_2024-9-30_13-53-5.png
     
    #240     Sep 30, 2024