Polling 2024

Discussion in 'Politics' started by poopy, Jul 28, 2024.

2024 Election Outcome

Poll closed Nov 5, 2024.
  1. Trump Loses

    46.2%
  2. Harris Wins

    69.2%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. Atlantic

    Atlantic


    and this trend will only get stronger.

    38 days to go!
     
    #221     Sep 28, 2024

  2. The Guardian's aggregate polling is pretty suspect being 2 points higher than Real Clear Politics and 1 point higher than 538.Between the three in 2020 Real Clear Politics aggregate lead was closest to the final results followed by 538 than The Guardian.


    Even with The Guardian's outlier lead Harris is still 4 points lower than Bidens 2020 lead.


    upload_2024-9-28_17-23-17.png



    upload_2024-9-28_17-24-30.png
     
    #222     Sep 28, 2024

  3. Nate Silver lost all credibility long ago.Less than a month ago he had Trump +20.







    After his public rival Allan Lichtman picked Harris (not wanting Lichtman to beat him in 2024 imo) Silver started moving toward Harris.
     
    #223     Sep 28, 2024
  4. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    he explained why his model had trump +20 when it happened. And why it flipped 2 weeks later.
     
    #224     Sep 28, 2024
  5. Atlantic

    Atlantic

    #225     Sep 29, 2024
  6. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    You will ignore this because Nate silver has no credibility but he’s back to a toss up after atlasintel polls (which he skews as very reliable) were super favorable to trump.

    I think the volatility in good polls shows that pollsters are using different methods to collect and analyze their data.
     
    #226     Sep 29, 2024
  7. Atlantic

    Atlantic

    [​IMG]
     
    #227     Sep 29, 2024
  8. Businessman

    Businessman

     
    #228     Sep 29, 2024
    insider trading and Mercor like this.

  9. I've read numerous times that Harris is polling poorly in internal polling,far worse than she is in public polling, where she is already polling worse than Barack Obama,Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton.The fact that someone like Elissa Slotkin confirms that shows how much trouble Harris is in.

    Even though public polling already has Harris polling worse than Obama, Biden and Clinton its still to kind to her and doesn't make sense when polling by sub groups of left wing voters are polled.Public polling has Harris + 2 (she needs to be around + 7 to win) but that makes no sense when polling consistently shows only around 80% of black voters will vote for Harris (Barack Obama,Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton got around 90%) and Jill Stein ahead of Harris with Muslim voters who have significant populations in some swing states.The democrat will not win the popular vote by +2 or even win the popular vote at all if they only get 80% of the black vote.

    Bottom line,Kamala Harris is doing far worse than public polling is showing,where she is already polling horribly.
     
    #229     Sep 29, 2024
  10. Debate bump has faded and Trump retakes the EC polling lead.


    upload_2024-9-30_13-10-25.png


    Worse than Biden.


    upload_2024-9-30_13-13-44.png


    Worse than Clinton.

    upload_2024-9-30_13-14-50.png



    Its over for VP Harris (never really started actually). Going forward The party and donors should put every penny into trying to win The House and Senate so they can slow down the Trump agenda there.Donations to Harris is a waste of money and resources.
     
    #230     Sep 30, 2024