I am ill today, giving up on assembling my new 14 inch Dobsonian telescope and going to bed with my Aquaman humidifier.
Donald Trump doesn't seem to be campaigning much these days.With Harris doing worse than Obama,Biden and Hillary by nearly every metric I think he/his team knows he has this in the bag. https://news.gallup.com/poll/651092/2024-election-environment-favorable-gop.aspx 2024 Election Environment Favorable to GOP Party affiliation, GOP issue advantages, economic pessimism among key factors by Jeffrey M. Jones WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Nearly all Gallup measures that have shown some relationship to past presidential election outcomes or that speak to current perceptions of the two major parties favor the Republican Party over the Democratic Party. Chief among these are Republican advantages in U.S. adults’ party identification and leanings, the belief that the GOP rather than the Democratic Party is better able to handle the most important problem facing the country, Americans’ dissatisfaction with the state of the nation, and negative evaluations of the economy with a Democratic administration in office. The following is a review of these key measures in 2024, primarily from a Sept. 3-15 Gallup poll, compared with the same measures in past presidential election years. Party Identification and Leaning More U.S. adults identify as Republican or say they lean toward the Republican Party (48%) than identify as or lean Democratic (45%). Those figures are based on an average of Gallup polls taken during the third quarter (July to September) to minimize poll-to-poll variation in party identification estimates and to provide more reliable comparisons across presidential years given the different timings of the two major party conventions in July, August or September. Party affiliation and voting are strongly predictive of individuals’ vote choices, with the vast majority of identifiers and leaners voting for the candidate of their preferred party. At the aggregate level, there are typically more Democrats and Democratic leaners than Republicans and Republican leaners in the U.S. adult population. Democrats have won presidential elections in years in which they had larger-than-normal advantages in party affiliation, including 1992, 1996, 2008, 2012 and 2020. In years when the advantage was narrower -- 2004 and 2016, for example -- Republicans won in the electoral college if not also the popular vote. Republicans previously have not had an outright advantage in party affiliation during the third quarter of a presidential election year, and they have rarely outnumbered Democrats in election and nonelection years over the past three decades. Party Performance on Issues Three separate measures of party performance on issues favor the Republican Party by at least a modest margin. By 46% to 41%, Americans say the Republican Party is better able than the Democratic Party to address what they think is the most important problem facing the country. The top issues Americans currently name as the most important are ones that tend to favor the GOP, including the economy (24%), immigration (22%), the government (17%) and inflation (15%). This measure has been highly predictive of election outcomes in Gallup trends dating back to 1948. The party rated as better at handling the most important problem has won all but three presidential elections since that year. The question was not asked in 2000, and the two parties tied in 1980, when inflation was the top issue. The only time the measure was out of sync with the outcome was in 1948, when Americans believed the Republican Party was better able to handle the most important problem (international issues) but returned Democratic incumbent Harry Truman to office. Gallup also tracks perceptions of which party can best handle economic and international matters, broadly. Americans currently give the Republican Party a six-percentage-point edge, 50% to 44%, as the party they think would do a better job of keeping the country prosperous. Gallup has asked this question since 1951. In 16 presidential elections since then when one party has had at least a minimal advantage on this measure, that party has won 12 times. The exceptions were 1952, 1968, 1980 and 2000. The question was not asked in 2004, and the parties were tied in 1956. Republicans hold a more substantial advantage of 14 points (54% to 40%) as the party Americans believe is better able to keep the nation safe from terrorism and other international threats. Republicans have led on this question all years it has been asked (dating back to 2002) except 2007 and 2012. Gallup has a limited history of asking this question in presidential election years. The 14-point Republican lead this year is larger than in any previous presidential election year. The prior highs were seven points in 2008 (a year Republicans lost) and 2016 (a year Republicans won). In 2012 (when the parties were tied) and 2020 (when Republicans had a four-point advantage), the Democratic candidate won the presidential election. Economic Confidence Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index is currently at -28, indicating Americans’ attitudes about the economy are negative, on balance. The rating is derived from the 22% of Americans describing current economic conditions as “excellent” or “good” versus the 48% saying they are “poor,” and the 32% believing the economy is “getting better” versus the 62% saying it is “getting worse.” In incumbent election years, a -28 economic confidence score would be closer to what it has typically been in losing (1992, 2008, 2016) rather than winning (1996, 2004, 2012) years for the president’s party. In 2020, Americans’ evaluations were essentially neutral when Donald Trump lost, though other incumbent presidents won when there were similar levels of economic confidence. National Satisfaction Twenty-two percent of Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time. Satisfaction levels this low have been associated with incumbent presidents losing their reelection bids in 1980 (19%), 1992 (22%) and 2020 (28%). In election years when incumbents have not sought reelection, satisfaction has been less strongly related to the eventual outcome. The 1988 and 2008 elections followed the general pattern, with the president’s party winning the former when the majority of Americans were satisfied and losing the latter with satisfaction near record lows. However, in 2000, Americans were highly satisfied, but the incumbent Democratic Party lost a close election in the Electoral College. The incumbent Democratic Party also lost the 2016 election (also in the Electoral College) with more middling levels of satisfaction. Presidential Job Approval President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race has moved presidential job approval from arguably the most important election indicator this year to one of secondary importance. At 39% job approval, Biden is well below the 48% threshold for past presidents who were reelected. The 2024 Republican presidential nominee, Donald Trump, lost the 2020 election when 46% approved of the job he was doing as president. Biden’s unpopularity could still affect the election to the extent voters transfer their frustrations with the Biden administration to Vice President Kamala Harris. For her part, 44% of U.S. adults approve of the job she is doing as vice president, down slightly from a 47% reading in August. In presidential election years when the incumbent was not running for reelection, the opposition party won all but the 1988 election. These losses occurred whether the incumbent president was popular (1960, 2000 and 2016) or unpopular (1952, 1968 and 2008) at the time of the election. All of those elections, unlike the current one, came after the incumbent had been elected to serve a second term as president in the prior election. Party Favorable Ratings One area where the Republican Party does not have an advantage over the Democratic Party this year is in party favorable ratings. The September Gallup poll finds 43% of Americans saying they have a favorable opinion of the Republican Party and 42% of the Democratic Party. In many presidential election years, like now, the parties had similar favorable ratings. In the years in which one party had an advantage -- 1996, 2004, 2008, 2012 and 2016 -- the party with the higher favorable rating won all but one (2016). Preference for Government Activity Americans generally express a preference for a limited government role, the traditional Republican position, when they are asked whether the government is doing too many things that should be left to individuals and businesses (55%) or should do more to solve the country’s problems (41%). Since opinions on this matter have been fairly consistent over time, they tend to have little relationship to election outcomes. However, it is notable that in 1992 and 2020, the only two election years when more Americans preferred an active government role, the Democratic Party candidate defeated a Republican incumbent. Congressional Job Approval All seats in the House of Representatives and approximately one-third of U.S. Senate seats are up for election this year. Congress remains unpopular, with 20% approving and 75% disapproving of the job it is doing, which theoretically could make incumbent members of Congress vulnerable. To the extent Americans’ frustrations with Congress influence their vote decision, it is unclear how those numbers will translate because the Republicans have a majority in the House of Representatives and Democrats are the majority party in the Senate. Nevertheless, the current level of congressional approval is remarkably similar to what it has been in every congressional election cycle since 2008, ranging between 18% and 21%. Divided Government Preference Americans have typically not held a clear preference for having a unified versus divided party government. The 41% who this year say having the same party control Congress and the presidency ties with 2020 as the highest in Gallup’s trend. Thirty percent say it makes no difference whether the government is unified or divided, while 23% say having different parties control Congress and the presidency is preferable. Americans have been slightly more likely to say that a unified government is better in presidential compared with non-presidential election years. Bottom Line The political environment suggests the election is Trump’s and Republicans’ to lose. Nearly every indicator of the election context is favorable to the Republican Party, and those that aren’t are essentially tied rather than showing a Democratic advantage. Nevertheless, the two major party presidential candidates have similar favorable ratings in Gallup’s September poll, echoing presidential preference polls that suggest a neck-and-neck race between Trump and Harris. It is possible that Americans’ voter preferences may align better with their views of the state of the nation between now and Election Day. Trump led in most presidential preference polls this summer when Biden was the presumptive Democratic nominee and Americans’ unhappiness was focused on the incumbent president. The election results will reveal the extent to which Harris, the incumbent vice president, is saddled with Americans’ frustrations with the current administration or is able to rise above those. It may be the case that Americans want to go in a different direction after previously voting against a second Trump term in 2020. If Trump were to lose, it suggests that concerns about his style, character, temperament, felony charges and convictions, and age outweigh Americans’ anxieties about the state of the nation.
A 1 point lead for VP Harris is really a 1-2 point lead for Donald Trump. https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/24/politics/polls-trump-harris-presidential-election/index.html CNN Poll: Harris and Trump locked in exceedingly close presidential race By Jennifer Agiesta, Ariel Edwards-Levy and Edward Wu, CNN Tue September 24, 2024 The race for president between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is exceedingly close, with Harris’ support resting on stronger personal appeal, while Trump draws on a die-hard base and a wide advantage on handling the economy to run about even despite less positive views of him, his empathy and temperament. Among likely voters nationwide, a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS finds 48% support Harris and 47% Trump, a margin that suggests no clear leader in the race.
https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us09242024_urah86.pdf FOR RELEASE: SEPTEMBER 24, 2024 2024 PRESIDENTIAL RACE: CAN’T GET MUCH CLOSER,QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY NATIONAL POLL FIND With 41 days until Election Day, the presidential race remains too close to call as former President Donald Trump receives 48 percent support among likely voters, Vice President Kamala Harris receives 47 percent support, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver each receive 1 percent support, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll of likely voters released today.
A new set of Bloomberg/Morning Consult polls finds Kamala Harris “has all but neutralized Donald Trump’s advantage on economic issues, fueling an upbeat showing for the Democrat in battleground states.” Arizona: Harris 50%, Trump 47% Michigan: Harris 50%, Trump 47% Nevada: Harris 52%, Trump 45% North Carolina: Harris 50%, Trump 48% Pennsylvania: Harris 51%, Trump 46% Wisconsin: Harris 51%, Trump 48% Georgia: Harris 49%, Trump 49% Across all seven swing states, Harris holds a 50% to 47% lead over Trump. Near or over 50 means there are a lot less undecided voters compared to 2016.
Aggregate. Vs aggregate 2020. For Harris to win she will need 2020 type numbers,she's not even close,in state polling or national polling.
Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Harris Leads In 6 Of 7 Battlegrounds In Latest Survey https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarado...ads-in-6-of-7-battlegrounds-in-latest-survey/ Topline Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump in six of seven swing states, according to a poll released Friday—after a survey a day earlier showed them tied in six—as the two head into the final stretch of Election Day with no clear leader in the places likely to decide the election. Key Facts Pennsylvania: Harris is up five points here (51% to 46%) according to a Friday Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll of likely voters, while an Emerson College/Pollara Strategic Insights poll released a day earlier showed them tied. Harris led in two of four surveys out Sept. 19: by four points (50% to 46%) in a New York Times/Siena College survey, and by one point (48% to 47%) in a Washington Post poll of registered voters, while a Marist poll of likely voters shows them tied at 49% and an Emerson College likely voter poll shows Trump up by one point (48% to 47%). Michigan: Harris leads Trump by three points (50% to 47%), according to Bloomberg/Morning Consult, while the Emerson/Pollara poll shows both with 50% here. Harris was up 52% to Trump’s 47% in last week’s Marist poll. Wisconsin: Harris is up three points (51% to 48%), according to Bloomberg/Morning Consult. Emerson/Pollara found a tie here, but Harris led by one point in the Marist (50% to 49%) and Quinnipiac (48% to 47%) polls taken last week. Arizona: Harris leads by three points (50% to 47%), Bloomberg/Morning Consult found, Trump and Harris both have 50% support in the Emerson/Pollara poll. Trump led by one point in a Thursday Marist poll of likely voters (50% to 49%) and by five points in a New York Times/Siena poll released Monday. Georgia: Trump and Harris are tied here at 49% in the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, with Harris up by one point (51% to 49%) in the Emerson/Pollara poll. She led by four points (49% to 45%) in both the Marist poll released Thursday and in the New York Times/Siena survey. Nevada: The Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey shows Harris up by seven points (52% to 45%), and they’re tied at 50% in the Emerson/Pollara poll. They were tied at 48% in the Sept. 19 Emerson poll. North Carolina: Harris leads by two points (50% to 48%) in the Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey, and she and Trump are tied at 50% in the Emerson/Pollara survey. The were tied at 49% in the latest Marist poll. Big Number 2. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by in Real Clear Politics’ national polling average, while FiveThirtyEight’s average shows her up by 2.7 points. Tangent Harris is receiving more support from younger, non-white and female voters—demographics who showed indecision over their support for Biden before he dropped out—according to a recent New York Times survey, which noted Harris had support from 84% of Black voters in the polls, a higher share of support than Biden had before withdrawing from the race in July. Key Background Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, despite insisting he would continue his campaign amid an intraparty revolt in the wake of his June 27 debate performance. He immediately endorsed Harris, she announced plans to seek the nomination and officially became the nominee in the first week of August when 99% of delegates voted for her in a virtual roll call. Prior to Biden dropping out of the race, polls consistently found Trump would beat him in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six of the seven (with the exception of North Carolina) in the 2020 election.
Harris stretches lead over Trump in what could be significant increase While election almost certain to be decided by swing states, pollsters explain why growth in national polls is meaningful https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/sep/28/harris-stretches-lead-over-trump
nate silver is saying Harris is moving ahead. 3percent nationally and in all the battlegrounds except arizona.