You don't seem to have read the polls in detail - the difference was the number of undecided voters who broke towards Trump after the Comey letter, you can't just look at the point difference without accounting for undecided voters. "Her standing was not quite as safe as it might have appeared from a surface analysis, however. For one thing, there were still lots of undecided voters, especially in the Midwest. Although Trump had a paltry 37 percent to 38 percent of the vote in polls of Michigan, for instance, Clinton had only 43 percent to 44 percent. That left the door open for Trump to leapfrog her if late developments caused undecideds to break toward him. Furthermore, in the event that the race tightened, Clinton’s vote was inefficiently distributed in the Electoral College, concentrated in coastal states rather than swing states. While she had only an 11 percent chance of losing the popular vote according to FiveThirtyEight’s forecast that morning, her chances of losing the Electoral College were a fair bit higher: 18 percent." https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/
RealClearPolitics average they are a combined 2%,in some individual polls they are as high a combined 5%. https://elections.harrisx.com/public/GW_Society_of_Presidential_Pollsters_2024.html Jill Stein only received 1% in 2016. With Democrats needing to win the popular vote by 4 % they cannot afford to lose 2% of the vote to Jill Stein and Cornel West,especially when those votes are coming from left wing voters, many who previously voted Democrat.
The questions around this didn't make sense. The race is neck and neck when it's just the two of them. You add 2 really left progressives and Kamala gets a bigger lead? The obvious conclusion would be Jill Stein and Cornel West are stealing from Trump, but that doesn't make sense.
Hillary Clinton still won the popular vote by 2 points,which is Kamala Harris's current lead.If Harris wins the popular vote by the 2 point lead she has she is still very likely to lose.Both Obama and Biden won the popular vote by 4 or more points.Even with a 4 point lead Harris would not be safe as Trump did better than the polling averages in both 2016 and 2020.
Trump generally outperforms the polls.Did so in 2016 and 2020. 5 is high and the extreme and I don't think they will get that much.I think they will easily get 2%,maybe 3.Democrats blame Stein for 2016 and she only got 1% than.
Indeed, I should have included 2020. However I'm sure the pollsters learned a lesson, fool me twice and all that. It might happen again but it seems far more jlikely that the weightings and methods are instead shifted to give Trump more lead than he has this time. "Most preelection polls in 2020 overstated Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump in the national vote for president, and in some states incorrectly indicated that Biden would likely win or that the race would be close when it was not. These problems led some commentators to argue that “polling is irrevocably broken,” that pollsters should be ignored, or that “the polling industry is a wreck, and should be blown up.” " https://www.pewresearch.org/methods...-tell-us-about-the-accuracy-of-issue-polling/
2022 polling was just .03 points off. If the 2024 polling is correct and Harris wins by her current 2 point lead Trump very likely wins the electoral college.